While it is expected that European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen will announce her bid next week to be the European People’s Party (EPP) lead candidate in the EU elections, the road to a second stint in the Berlaymont is not expected to be smooth.
It is an open secret in Brussels that von der Leyen will likely kickstart her re-election campaign during a CDU party meeting in Berlin next Monday (19 February), just two days ahead of the official deadline to join the race.
It will be the perfect occasion to rally her troops for the EU elections in June, and her words will be closely scrutinised, especially as she still needs to garner enough support to be formally elected during the EPP’s Congress in Bucharest on 7 March.
To be able to run for the lead candidate post, she needs support from two other member parties besides her own CDU.
As Euractiv reported last month, rumours in the corridors of Brussels suggest that Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s Civic Platform and Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis’ New Democracy are likely to endorse her.
While no other candidates are expected and she will likely be uncontested, the two main remaining hurdles between her and the top job will be the election results – and the will of 27 EU leaders.
Somewhat ironically, some now bank on von der Leyen to save the system of lead candidates, or Spitzenkandidaten, because even though her first appointment did not follow the process, she now has the chance to be a proper Spitzenkandidat and win the top job by the rules.
After steering the EU through two crises – the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia’s war in Ukraine – von der Leyen is the clear favourite to win the race – especially given that the contenders from other parties have little to no clout.
It will be up to the EU leaders to put a seal on it.
Apart from her EPP, von der Leyen has managed to win the affection of a range of EU leaders from other political families, such as Spain’s Socialist Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez, who, apart from having a close relationship with her, openly affirmed he is in favour of her second term.
She has also cosied up to Italy’s right-wing Prime Minister Georgia Meloni, boss of the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) Group, through a win-win alliance based on migration deals and the pay-out of stalled recovery funds.
But Meloni’s support is not yet entirely certain, partly due to ECR’s Polish member Law and Justice’s likely resistance to such a liaison due to their rough relationship with Brussels during their eight years in power.
A small question mark also remains over whether her own home country would support her for a second stint, as the coalition agreement between Germany’s ruling Socialists, Liberals, and Greens could be a stumbling block.
Once nominated by the EU leaders with qualified majority voting, she would still have to face a vote in the European Parliament, where waters could get murky depending on election results.
According to Euractiv’s latest projections, the likely alliance between the EPP, Socialists, and Liberals could still garner a narrow majority. But with the surge of the far-right fringe – namely ID and ECR, who are on course to becoming the third and fourth biggest political groups – power shifts inside the chamber might throw a spanner in the works.
“The future president of the Commission will need votes from the ECR to get elected,” an EPP spokesperson told Euractiv last week, forecasting tough negotiations.
Will von der Leyen continue flirting with the Socialists, Liberals, and Greens to protect the Green Deal legacy that her own party seeks to revise? And to what extent will she follow the tidal waves veering to the right? The answers to these questions will shape her next five years in the Berlaymont.
*Alexandra Brzozowski contributed to this Brief
The Roundup
Ireland and Spain are seeking an “urgent review” of whether Israel is complying with human rights obligations under its trade agreement with the EU, according to a joint letter seen by Euractiv.
Eighteen out of 31 NATO countries will spend more than the required 2% of GDP on defence in 2024, according to estimates presented by Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg on Wednesday, days after US presidential candidate Donald Trump criticised the alliance for under-investing.
The EU is getting more dependent on China in its quest to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and switch to green technologies, the EU’s climate chief Wopke Hoekstra warned, adding it is becoming “problematic” going forward.
The co-president of the Greens/EFA European parliamentary group, Philippe Lamberts, rebuked recent warnings by the head of Belgium’s central bank that the green transition will make Europe poorer, saying that anyone who does not see the transition as a matter of survival should give the floor to “more serious people”.
The Greek Orthodox Church asked lawmakers on Wednesday to hold a roll-call vote on the same-sex marriage bill, a sensitive issue that has sparked an intense debate in the country and divided the ruling conservative New Democracy party.
French police found that Alexandre Benalla, a former top aide to Emmanuel Macron, was involved in businesses that struck private security deals with Russian oligarchs and personally benefitted from some of the proceeds – including when he still worked at the Elysée.
Still in France: Former president Nicolas Sarkozy was found guilty of illegal campaign financing by the Paris Court of Appeal on Wednesday (14 February), and given a one-year prison sentence.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) is looking to expand its tasks by turning to critical minerals, welcoming new members and boosting its focus on Asia with a new office in Singapore.
For more policy news, check out this week’s Green Brief and the Health Brief.
Look out for…
- Commissioner Didier Reynders in Bulgaria on Thursday, meets with PM Nikolai Denkov, presents 2023 Rule of Law report.
- Commission Vice-President Margaritis Schinas delivers keynote speech at opening of Munich Cyber Security Conference on Thursday.
- Informal meeting of competitiveness ministers (research and innovation) on Wednesday-Thursday.
Views are the author’s
[Edited by Zoran Radosavljevic/Alice Taylor]
Source: euractiv.com
