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When does a country that has been in Russia’s orbit and is now attracted to the EU reach the point of no return from becoming part of the free world? The Moldova vote suggests some answers.
So far, the EU’s reaction to the dramatic Moldova vote has been three–staged: shock, relief, and self-congratulation.
Shock because the first news reports on Monday morning pointed at a victory of the “no” camp in the referendum to enshrine EU membership in the constitution.
Until the vote count from abroad tilted the result, the stupefaction and distress were particularly strong in Romania. The country that thought it could achieve reunification with its brothers across the Prut River, thanks to EU enlargement. Brussels-based Romanians said this was like decades of effort and hope, vanishing into the air.
Should anyone be surprised that Russia is capable of influencing – and even buying elections in its neighbourhood?
Russia’s interference in the run-up to the Moldova elections was hardly a secret. In the last couple of months, we counted at least 10 Euractiv articles warning of massive election interference, interference from Western-sanctioned fugitive oligarchs, manipulation of the Gagauz ethnicity, pumping up support for the pro-Kremlin Socialists, outright vote-buying, and much more.
It is not the first – and will not be the last time – Russia will pull the strings in the former Soviet Republic, where its secret services feel at home.
There are indeed divisions in Moldova’s society, and Russia exploits them to the fullest extent. The country has two main spoken languages: Romanian and Russian. Part of the population prefers the Russian language, follows media carrying messages from Moscow, and depicts the former Soviet Union idealistically.
Conversely, many Western-minded Moldovans live in Europe and other countries. A million of them have Romanian passports, which allow them to travel and work in the EU. Some of them voted in embassies abroad, and thanks to their votes, the pro-EU camp won by a razor-thin margin in the referendum. Moldova’s pro-Brussels President Maia Sandu came out on top in the first round of presidential elections.
Then came the relief and self-congratulation as the referendum result reached 50.42%.
“Putin fails!” various mainstream media wrote. Commission President Ursula von der Leyen posted victoriously on X: “In the face of Russia’s hybrid tactics, Moldova shows that it is independent, it is strong, and it wants a European future!”
“It was very close, but it is a great relief,” said German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock at a press conference in Berlin.
In her words, the vote in favour of joining the bloc is proof that the EU “can always make a difference.” She reminded that following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the international community launched a ‘Moldova support platform’ accompanied by substantial financial aid.
Moldovans in Brussels seemed less enthusiastic. It is far from certain that Sandu will win in the second round, and there will be no letdown of the Russian interference.
For people who have lived under Soviet rule, one thing is certain – Russia says its boundaries know no limits, and it does not accept that countries in its neighbourhood have reached the point of never returning to the Russian empire.
Moldova is a country where I feel at home, as I speak its two languages. It reminds me of Bulgaria of twenty years ago, my country of origin, where elections will be held on Sunday.
Just like in Moldova, Russia has a lot of influence in Bulgaria’s society, and it makes no big difference that we are in the EU and NATO. Bulgaria has not been a Soviet Republic, but Bulgarians see the Russians as a brotherly nation, mostly because they are thankful for the sacrifice of tens of thousands of soldiers of the Russian imperial army, which liberated Bulgaria from the Ottoman Empire in 1878.
Several political parties in Bulgaria are openly pro-Russian. According to opinion polls, the pro-Russia and anti-EU Vazrazhdane party is expected to come second.
One of Vazrazhdane’s most important demands is that a referendum be held on Bulgaria’s exit from NATO. Their narrative is that Bulgaria should exit NATO because it is no longer a defence bloc but a military alliance that is currently “participating in a specialised military operation” in Ukraine against Russia.
According to the Bulgarian constitution, referendums on issues agreed upon under international treaties can be conducted only before their ratification. Nevertheless, Vazrazhdane keeps drumming up its referendum demand because most of its followers believe that the correct thing is to consult the people.
The political fabric of Bulgaria is unravelling. These are the seventh elections in a row in the last three years, and none have led to the formation of a stable government. And with each election, Vazrazhdane grows in popularity.
Opinions are already growing that the political system of the country should be completely changed – whatever that means. No, we have not yet reached the point of no return.
Moldova and Bulgaria both share being weak states, shady oligarchs with political ambitions, poverty, and a lot of corruption, which makes massive vote-buying possible. In both countries, the EU has spent many funds, but they have mostly reached a corrupt elite that only pretends to be pro-West.
With a new Commission taking over, now is the time to change the way EU funds are spent, so that ordinary Moldovans and Bulgarians can benefit from them. Maybe the elections in Moldova and Bulgaria will ring that bell?
The Roundup In a statement issued on Monday evening, Roberta Metsola, president of the European Parliament, and Ursula von der Leyen, president of the European Commission, laid the groundwork for better inclusion of parliamentarians in EU lawmaking.
Chancellor Olaf Scholz and Finland’s hawkish President Alexander Stubb will discuss Ukraine’s ‘victory plan’ on Tuesday, as the Finnish foreign minister urged Germany to shed its reservations about weapon deliveries and embrace its “very important role”.
With Moldova’s knife-edge elections this weekend, European officials are concerned next year’s parliamentary elections could be an even bigger fight to keep the country on a pro-European course.
Former EU commissioner Thierry Breton had an “excellent meeting” with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán in Budapest on Monday (21 October), according to his comments on X.
Politicians in Bucharest are thrilled Moldova voted to join the EU in a close referendum held amidst reported disinformation campaigns and hybrid aggression by Moscow.
Prominent Bulgarian television journalist Maria Tsantsarova has been the subject of a scathing political attack by the radical pro-Russian party Vazrazhdane and the populists of There Is Such a People days before snap parliamentary elections scheduled for 27 October.
Some experts have warned about Russia’s nefarious impact on the recent elections in Moldova, highlighting the urgent need for EU support to bolster democratic institutions and counter disinformation, as Moscow’s efforts to influence the country are expected to continue.
The Spanish government of Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez is finalising the details of a massive regularisation of hundreds of thousands of immigrants living in the country, in sharp contrast to the recent migration control plans of Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni.
Look out for
- European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen visits the Western Balkans, which includes North Macedonia and Bosnia and Herzegovina.
- Von der Leyen will also visit Albania to meet Prime Minister Edi Rama.
- The European Parliament will debate the following issues in Strasbourg Plenary; managing migration and returns, tackling the steel crisis, war crimes committed by the Russian Federation, notably killing Ukrainian prisoners of war, U-turn on EU bureaucracy, Court of Auditors’ annual report 2023, Poland’s abortion law, seven years from the assassination of Daphne Caruana Galizia, role of cities and regions in the EU, and foreign interference and hybrid attacks, sanctions against Russia, and the need to strengthen European rail travel and the railway sector.
- European Commissioner Janusz Wojciechowski will be in Warsaw, Poland, participating in the Food Safety Congress, organised by International Featured Standards and the Council of Supply Chain Management Professionals.
- Commissioner Nicholas Schmit meets Greece’s Minister of Labour and Social Security, Niki Kerameus, in Brussels, Belgium.
[Edited by Alice Taylor-Braçe/Rajnish Singh]
Source: euractiv.com
