The Brief – Breton, Hayer, Kallas, Gozi… Where are the liberals’ leaders?

Three months ahead of the EU elections and just two weeks before their grand electoral launch, the EU’s liberals are lagging behind the other political forces and struggling to find their common leaders. Who is in the running?

The Greens, the Socialists, and the Left have already appointed leaders for the EU elections and kickstarted their campaigns with common manifestos, while the centre-right European People’s Party (EPP) will give its blessing for Commission President Ursula von der Leyen’s bid for a second term during their congress starting tomorrow.

With manifestos and public appearances, the party leaders have very much started the electoral battle, positioning themselves for what will be tough negotiations, and even tougher policymaking thereafter.

But in all of this pre-electioneering, one voice has barely been heard: Where are the liberals?

Although the launch of the liberals’ ‘Renew Europe Now’ campaign platform is scheduled for 20 March, it is still unclear who their leader(s) will be, who they will put forward for the top job, and how they will unite all of the diverging views in coherent policy priorities.

On top of that, they are projected to drop from third- to fifth-largest force in the European Parliament, losing more than 20 seats.

Sharpening knives

The quietness hasn’t gone unnoticed, with some other political forces already preparing to capitalise on their hesitancy.

“If you look at the liberals, there’s deafening silence about how to move forward,” EPP secretary general, Thanasis Bakolas, told Euractiv in an interview.

“And I feel they’re not, to a certain extent, part of the conversation at all. I don’t know if they’re also sending us a message that they rely on our leadership and our strong positioning in terms of future policies,” he added.

A Renew insider also acknowledged that the group’s lack of a clear campaign strategy gives the impression of internal splits.

Looking at the many diverging views of the liberals – one of the more divided groups in the European Parliament – they will need a strong voice with experience in working on policy priorities that will be able to embody and own their programme. But who is up to the task?

The names we have heard

During the launch event on 20 March, the main factions composing the liberal Renew Europe group in the European Parliament will announce their 10-point common programme, and their Spitzenkandidat – or lead candidate, who would bid for the Commission top job if the group wins the largest number of seats – to lead them throughout the campaign.

So far, it seems that the Spitzenkandidat post will have to be split into three, Euractiv understands, to accommodate all factions from the group: the Alliance of Liberals and Democrats (ALDE), French President Emmanuel Macron’s party Renaissance, and the European Democratic Party (EDP).

While there will be three top personalities representing Renew, only ALDE will get the true Spitzen post that will bid for the Commission presidency. The other two will be figureheads to rally voters during the campaign, Euractiv understands.

ALDE members are hoping for Estonia’s Kaja Kallas to take the reins of the campaign. But she seems to prefer running by herself, without the two sidekicks, making her more hesitant to jump on the election train now that she may need to share the pie with the other factions’ candidates.

ALDE’s deadline for an internal decision – initially last week – was postponed as they had not yet settled on a candidate, an insider briefed on the matter told Euractiv.

For Macron’s Renaissance, several names have been floated, such as the current president of the liberals in the European Parliament, Valérie Hayer and the current Internal Market Commissioner Thierry Breton.

Hayer, who is Renaissance’s lead candidate for the EU elections and has been an active campaigner for the group, could fit the bill as she represents all the liberal factions as their president.

However, “there was no discussion” about it and “it’s not in the pipeline”, Hayer’s cabinet told Euractiv, contradicting what another source with knowledge of the talks said.

Breton seems a more likely option. According to sources briefed on the discussions, he could also be up for the position, and he’s got five years of experience as a commissioner under his belt.

The only candidate we know for sure is that of the EDP.

Representing parties such as France’s MoDem and Germany’s Freie Wähler will be French President Emmanuel Macron’s ally and EDP’s secretary-general, MEP Sandro Gozi, a liberal source close to EDP told Euractiv. He will most likely be nominated during the party congress in Florence this Friday (8 March).

Internal discussions, hesitations, infighting, and contradictions noticed by Euractiv in recent weeks surely show one thing: All bets are open.

The Roundup

The European Commission tabled a modest fund on Tuesday to start up its first defence production programme and strategy, to increase industrial output, give the sector more visibility, and prepare for potential shortages in crisis times.

EU negotiators reached a deal on Tuesday morning on a new regulation aiming to ban products linked to forced labour from the bloc’s market, with potential implications for agricultural and food commodities produced in and outside the bloc.

EU co-legislators sealed a provisional deal in the early hours of Tuesday on rules that will ban forced labour products from the bloc’s import and export markets, overturning expectations that the law would fail to pass within the current legislative mandate after months of stalling progress.

Nuclear technologies should benefit from all types of EU funding, such as the European Investment Bank (EIB) and innovation funds, the French-led nuclear alliance, which now has 12 EU member states, said at its meeting on Monday.

The controversial overhaul of the EU’s packaging waste rules was agreed in Brussels on Monday, paving the way for a 15% reduction in waste, banning plastic sauce cachets and EU-wide bottle deposit schemes.

Last but not least, check out this week’s Transport Brief: Party congress season.

Look out for…

Commissioner Thierry Breton delivers keynote speech at European Tech Alliance CEO Forum in Brussels on Wednesday.
Competitiveness Council (Internal market and industry) on Thursday.
EPP congress in Budapest on Wednesday-Thursday.

Views are the author’s

[Edited by Zoran Radosavljevic/Alice Taylor]