Observing Germany’s policies towards Ukraine and Russia is like watching grass grow. Staring at it with the naked eye, no movement is to be seen, but if you look away and come back later, a lot has happened – it just happened exceptionally slowly.
In the last few weeks, Germany’s position on most things Ukraine has been turned on its head – from a principled ‘no’ to heavy weapons deliveries to German Gepard tanks going to Ukraine; from opposing additional energy sanctions to Berlin throwing its weight behind an oil embargo against Russia.
But what may sound like a big, spirited decision and spectacular U-turn wasn’t actually one at all.
Instead, it was a series of political back and forths, with bickering even between party colleagues, an increasingly confused public, and a chancellor practising a mix of defensiveness while gradually giving in to pressure from within and outside the government.
Basically, the Berlin government has appeared like a turtle that, while marching in the right direction, does so very slowly.
After Germany initially shied away from imposing any sanctions on Russian energy imports, it took its first baby steps toward an embargo when it sided with the EU’s decision to end Russian coal imports as part of the fifth sanctions package in early April.
Afterwards, however, the government insisted that Germany was still very much dependent on the incoming oil and gas until last week when Energy Minister Robert Habeck announced – after heavy lobbying from Poland – that the country was “very, very close” to becoming independent of Russian oil.
But this still did not mean that Germany came out in favour of an oil embargo. For that, we had to wait another week until it became clear that Berlin diplomats were actually supporting the step in preliminary EU talks on new sanctions. We had to then wait until Sunday (1 May) until the government finally confirmed this stance.
Meanwhile, Habeck still maintains that, for gas, this journey will take much longer, and it is not yet clear if and when Germany will creep towards supporting a full embargo on Russian energy.
Meanwhile, the road towards delivering heavy weaponry has been similarly long and winding.
After the government staunchly opposed sending heavy weaponry to Ukraine – based on the country’s traditional principle of not exporting weapons to active war zones – pressure on Scholz and his SPD mounted from the public, the opposition, and coalition partners.
At first, this led the SPD to change its rhetoric away from opposing heavy weapons shipments in principle and towards finding practical obstacles as pretexts: “We do not have any weapons… Ukrainian soldiers are not trained to operate our tanks anyway… The tanks we could deliver are not properly functional. You wouldn’t even want them.”
In the next little turtle step, the government finally agreed in mid-April to a swap deal with Slovenia, through which it avoided delivering tanks directly to Ukraine but instead used Ljubljana as an intermediary.
Finally, last week, the government agreed to provide Kyiv with Marder tanks offered by a domestic manufacturer (but only after SPD party chief Saskia Esken called the tanks “old and dusty” just a day before).
In brief: Chancellor Scholz is stepping directly into the footsteps of his predecessor Angela Merkel, who was known for her reactive policy style of “muddling through”, where principled, proactive decisions are shunned as rash and impetuous.
But while this technique helped Merkel secure broad support for 16 years, it does not seem to work as well for Scholz, whose ratings are lagging far behind the Green foreign and energy ministers – both of whom have appeared much more decisive since the start of the war.
Maybe, just maybe, a full-on war of aggression on European soil has stifled Germans’ appetite for a Mutti (or Vati, now) figure who will muddle through on their behalf.
To them, and above all to Ukraine, Germany owes it to give the turtle a rocket boost.
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The Roundup
Hungary dismissed as “fake news” allegations made by a high-level Ukrainian official that Budapest had been warned by Russian President Vladimir Putin of his intention to invade Ukraine and was even planning to annex part of its neighbour’s territory.
Russian President Vladimir Putin put the West on notice on Tuesday that he could terminate exports and deals, the Kremlin’s toughest response yet to the sanctions burden imposed by the United States and allies over the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Meanwhile, Russia’s foreign ministry accused Israel on Tuesday of supporting neo-Nazis in Ukraine, further escalating a row which began when Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov claimed Adolf Hitler had Jewish origins.
After German chancellor Scholz announced on Monday that he would not visit Ukraine as Kyiv did not welcome German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier over his alleged close ties to Russia, the Ukrainian ambassador fired back with a scathing response.
Multiple open letters urging the German government to pressure Ukraine into a compromise with Vladimir Putin gather support in the country, with high-ranking politicians backing the call. Meanwhile, the Ukrainian civil society has called the move “disturbing.”
Ukraine needs logistical support to export crucial agricultural products currently impacted by Russia’s aggression, German Agriculture Minister Cem Özdemir, who wants to mobilise fellow G7 countries to help Ukraine, has said. EURACTIV Germany reports.
A mix of ideal and pragmatic federalism should lead toward EU treaties revision quicker integration of the Western Balkans and Ukraine into the EU, according to Italy’s Prime Minister Mario Draghi.
European lawmakers across the political spectrum lashed out on Tuesday at the French delegation heading the EU Council for not showing up at a long-delayed debate on the procedure against Hungary and Poland for their alleged breach of EU values.
Ahead of France’s upcoming June legislative elections, the Greens have found themselves defending their new partnership with Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s party amid accusations that it is compromising when it comes to the EU. EURACTIV France reports.
In other news, the two years of the pandemic have put the mental health of the youngest to the test, but there is not enough data to create an adequate response, according to Santé Publique France, which launched a national survey on the well-being of children on Monday.
Almost 40% of Europe and Central Asia are in a “problematic” press freedom situation, according to the Reporters Without Borders’ (RSF) 2022 World Press Freedom Index published on Tuesday.
After many years as the worst-ranked EU country in terms of press freedom, Bulgaria has finally improved, while the worsening media situation in Greece sent that country to the bottom.
Some progress has been seen in the area of media freedom in 2021 in the Western Balkans, although more needs to be done.
On Tuesday, the European Parliament adopted its position on a major reform of EU electoral law that would introduce bloc-wide transnational lists, following a compromise between the largest EU parties in March.
Last but not least, don’t forget to have a look at our latest Transport Brief.
Look out for…
- Plenary session of the European Parliament in Strasbourg.
- Commissioner Mariya Gabriel holds video-conference call with ITRE Ukraine Contact group.
- European Economic and Social Committee holds online thematic debate on Common Agricultural Policy in the context of war in Ukraine and CAP’ss 60th anniversary.
- French EU Council presidency holds conference ‘Museums in Europe: What challenges lie ahead?’.
Views are the author’s.
[Edited by Zoran Radosavljevic/Alice Taylor]
Source: euractiv.com
