Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez’s socialist PSOE party could win the next Spanish general election set to take place in December 2023, a fresh poll published Monday predicts.
According to the 40dB barometer for El País and private radio station Cadena SER, the PSOE would be in a position to fight for the podium with centre-right opposition Popular Party (Partido Popular/EPP).
The poll also found that the PP would obtain 120 seats and the PSOE would win 112 seats in the 350-seat parliament.
This means both parties would fall short of an absolute majority of 176 seats, meaning PSOE would have to form a left-wing formation with, for example, its current partner Unidas Podemos, while PP would have to seek support from the far-right VOX, currently the third political force in parliament.
The 40dB study also points out that for the first time this year, the PSOE would be very close to repeating the result achieved in the 2018 election, close to 27.8 % in voting intentions.
The 4dB barometer also highlights that, for the first time since May, when Alberto Núñez Feijóo took over the direction of the PP, his party has fallen by almost two points in voting intentions compared to the previous month (28.1% in December).
Likewise, the poll points out that the “leakage” of votes from the PSOE to the PP that experts have noted after the change of leadership in the PP has slowed down.
In April, the PP started a new political era with the election of Núñez Feijóo, former president of Galicia, as its new Secretary General, in a strategic move that political analysts have called “El Efecto Feijóo”.
The 40dB study indicates that the PSOE would lose 5% of its electorate to the PP, but this figure has been reduced by 1.3 points in the last month and by more than three points compared to the summer when that gap was larger.
Meanwhile, the fresh survey says the socialists have recovered almost 13% of Unidas Podemos ’ former voters: three points more than in the previous month.
As for the rest of the parties and the estimate of seats, VOX would obtain 41, Unidas Podemos, 30, ERC (13), JxC (9), PNV (6), Bildu (5), Más País (4), NA+ (2), BNG (2), Coalición Canaria (2), Ciudadanos (1), CUP (1), PRC (1) and regional party Teruel Existe (1).
(Fernando Heller | EuroEFE.EURACTIV.es)
Source: euractiv.com
