Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez’s PSOE party could govern alongside the new progressive platform Sumar even though the centre-right party, Partido Popular (PP/EPP), is primed to win the upcoming general elections and gain a significant number of seats in parliament, a new survey by state-owned Centro for Sociological Investigations (CIS) revealed on Wednesday.
According to the study, PP would win the race with 31.4% and earn 122-140 seats out of the 350 in the Spanish parliament. While it would come in first, it would not have enough allies to govern as the far-right party VOX (ECR) decline would see the party lose almost half of its seats.
Sanchez’s PSOE (S&D) would come in second with 31.2%, earning the party between 115 and 135 seats. To remain in government, though, Sánchez would need to ally with Sumar, the study forecasts.
The poll adds that Sumar, comprised of 15 left-wing parties, is predicted to receive 16.4% of the votes, a score that should give the platform between 43 and 50 seats and make it the country’s third political force.
Even if PP and VOX were to receive the best scores, they would still be seven seats short of forming an absolute majority of 176 seats.
Studies from CIS have repeatedly been questioned by almost all experts and political parties, except for PSOE, El País reported.
Heavy blow for VOX?
The poll also predicts a severe political blow for VOX, as it is expected to obtain 10.6% of the vote and just between 21 and 29 seats in parliament – a far cry from the 52 seats it gained in 2019.
The poll also predicts that PSOE and Sumar would have 185 seats in parliament, comfortably surpassing the 176 seats benchmark.
Based on 29,201 interviews, the poll was carried out between 8 and 27 June, amid negotiations at the regional and municipal level between PP and VOX.
Previous opinion polls had predicted a comfortable victory for the PP.
In case PSOE and Sumar fall 18 seats short of the absolute majority, the socialist party would need the support of several pro-independence political formations, such as Catalan Republican Left of Catalonia (ERC) and Basque EH-Bildu and PNV.
However, political analysts have warned with so many undecided voters (35.1%) and with 18 days to go until the general election, anything can happen.
(Fernando Heller | EuroEFE.EURACTIV.es)
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