Spain’s centre-right gains support after harsh election debate: poll results

Over 40% of 1.2 million voters said they would shift their vote to Partido Popular after watching the electoral debate between Partido Popular´s leader Alberto Núñez Feijóo (PP/EPP) and Spain’s acting prime minister and socialist leader Pedro Sánchez (PSOE/S&D) on Monday, according to poll results published on Wednesday.

In total, almost 1.2 million voters (3.2 %) say that, after watching the political duel between the two political rivals, they will change their vote, with more than 40% saying they would shift to the PP camp.

According to an NC Report poll for La Razón, the debate boosted support for Feijóo, who could have won 500,000 extra votes, and whom 57% of those polled consider the winner of the debate, compared to 39% who believe it was Sánchez.

With only two weeks to go until the general election on 23 July, the PSOE would only have managed to capture 150,000 new votes, the far-right Vox (ERC) party 152,000, and the new progressive platform Sumar, led by the current Minister of Labour, Yolanda Díaz, some 80,000 votes, according to the NC Report study.

Meanwhile, a poll by GAD3 for ABC Daily shows that support for the PSOE has fallen for the first time from the 28% that the centre-left formation had achieved in the 2019 elections and predicts a loss of four seats for PSOE.

The socialist party, according to the GAD3 study, would gain 109 MPs, while the PP would have 36.3% of the votes and 153 seats, two more than in a previous poll, and would lead the PSOE by 44 seats.

The tough fight for the third place

Moreover, according to the ABC poll, the fight for third place will be fiercely contested. According to the study, Vox (currently the third political force in Spain) and Sumar would be tied on 12% of the votes and fall below 30 seats.

A poll by 40dB for El País and private radio station Cadena SER shows that, after Monday’s debate, Partido Popular would gain two seats and the PSOE would lose the same number.

The harsh debate between Sánchez and Núñez Feijóo was followed by 5.9 million viewers, data from Kantar Media revealed Wednesday.

On the other hand, the 40dB study points out that none of the candidates won clearly in the debate, although Núñez Feijóo performed better than Sánchez.

According to 40dB’s projection, the PP would gain 31.2 % of the votes, almost half a point more, and 127 seats, and the PSOE 29.5% of the votes and 113 deputies.

Vox would gain 14.7% of the vote, half a point less than now, and 42 seats, and Sumar would reach 13.3%, and gain 37 seats.

PP and Vox would be, together, at 169 seats, just seven seats short of the absolute majority (176 out of 350 seats). PSOE and Sumar would again fall to 150 seats between them.

Absolute majority for the right bloc?

A Sigma Dos poll for El Mundo daily, however, indicates that the right-wing bloc could gain between 177 and 183 seats and achieve a comfortable absolute majority.

Although 54.2% of Spaniards think that Núñez Feijóo did better than Sánchez in the debate, including 22.3% of those who voted for the PSOE in the 2019 elections, the latest changes in voting intentions mainly benefit Vox and Sumar, according to the Sigma Dos poll.

According to this survey, the PP would win the elections with 34.4 % of the votes, and a margin of seats between 142 and 146, while the PSOE would win 28.6 % of the votes, and between 105 and 109 seats.

(Fernando Heller | EuroEFE.EURACTIV.es)