Strong relations between Spanish PM Pedro Sánchez and EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, who on Monday announced she was seeking a second five-year term, will be key to countering rising far-right anti-EU forces, Ignacio Molina, a senior researcher at the prestigious Elcano Royal Institute told Euractiv’s partner EFE in an interview.
In his interview with EuroEFE, Molina pointed to the EU elections in June, saying they will be crucial in determining whether the status quo will be maintained or whether the current rise of the far right will bring about radical change.
“What is at stake in the June elections is whether the grand coalition of centre-left, centre and centre-right pro-European forces that has been repeated in the European Parliament since 1979 will be confirmed, or whether there will be a more right-wing, more Eurosceptic alternative,” Molina stresses.
Forces opposed to European political integration could gain a foothold in the European Parliament at a particularly sensitive time for Europe due to the challenges posed by the war in Ukraine and international geopolitical instability, he added.
“At this time, with so many right-wing and far-right forces in the European Parliament, there is the possibility of an alternative majority, which would be very negative for the process of European integration, and especially for Spain,” Molina also said.
Avoiding ‘Spanish polarisation’
Molina also believes that von der Leyen returning as Commission chief for another five years would help avoid political polarisation, with all the tension that this entails, as is the case in Spain, for example.
“In Spain, we have a very polarised domestic landscape between left and right. Fortunately, at the EU level, there is a great counterweight in the fact that the PSOE (S&D) and the PP (EPP) are in agreement and tend to vote together most of the time in the European Parliament,” Molina points out.
At the same time, the Elcano researcher points to the importance of Europe being “governed” by moderate forces at a time of particular tension between the political extremes.
“A second term for von der Leyen would mean – and this is what she wants to symbolise – that this European “grand coalition” of moderate forces will be repeated,” Molina adds.
“If von der Leyen is re-elected, it will be good news for Europe and for Spain, not so much because of her management in Brussels, which has not been bad, but because the centre-left, the centre-liberal and the pro-European centre-right will continue to unite around a common figure and a legislative majority,” Molina also said.
“The alternative is to introduce a left-right dynamic at the EU level, which I think would be very damaging and especially negative for Spain,” the researcher adds.
Sánchez-von der Leyen ties mutually beneficial
In this sense, the researcher believes that the good relationship and excellent rapport between Sánchez and von der Leyen would be of “political benefit” to both.
“Spain would look very favourably on a second term for von der Leyen. Sánchez and the Commission president have a very good personal relationship, despite the fact that they belong to different political families and that in the national political scene, Sánchez often uses the confrontation between left and right (and the far-right VOX) as a political weapon,” Molina added.
“A European People’s Party (EPP) that is different from the Spanish PP is good for Sánchez from a national electoral point of view because the European PP is reluctant to make a pact with the ‘ultras’ and eurosceptic forces. The EPP has a good dialogue with the centre-left pro-European forces,” he said.
As for the outcome of the European elections, Molina believes it is too early to make predictions, although he does not paint a very encouraging picture for the Spanish left, even though Ecological Transition Minister Teresa Ribera is a potential candidate for EU commissioner.
“It is likely that the PSOE candidate will lose in the European elections because voters could ‘punish’ the government with their vote. However, it is not known whether the PSOE will choose to ‘burn’ a candidate to run in the European elections and lose, and then make (that candidate) a European Commissioner or not,” he said.
“The name that sounds most likely at the moment is that of the Minister for Ecological Transition, Teresa Ribera (PSOE/S&D),” he added.
(Fernando Heller | EuroEFE.Euractiv.es)
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