Romanian parties predicted to face tight EU elections race

Romania’s four main political parties will likely tie in next year’s EU election, with far-right party AUR expected to make the most gains compared to the previous 2019 election, according to predictions made by INSCOP Research.

INSCOP Research, a social and marketing research firm, has measured voting intentions in the country over the past two years.

Based on the research, the traditionally strong liberal party PNL and the Social Democratic Party (PSD) – currently the country’s biggest political force – are facing the impact of erosion and would thus not fare so well in the EU elections, INSCOP Research’s general director Remus Ștefureac said Wednesday.

Support for PNL had dropped from 26.6% in June 2021 to 18% in June 2023, though figures had already dropped significantly by December 2021 when the party formed a government with PSD and UDMR and only had the backing of 20.1% of voters, Ștefureac added.

For its part, the PSD saw support drop from 30.2% to 28.7% between June 2021 and June of this year, though, like PNL, it saw support drop significantly from when it entered government to now: 36% to 28.7%.

On the side of the far-right, AUR has been steadily gaining support, while the liberal USR party recently rebounded after stagnation as it managed to gain 3% in voting intentions since the start of this year.

“AUR, which has remained in opposition throughout this period, has witnessed a growth of 6% in the last two years, rising from 14.2% in June 2021 to 20.1% in June 2022. In the past six months, AUR has consistently increased in voting intention”, Ștefureac said.

At the same time, support for USR remained quite stagnant, as support went from 13.2% in June 2021 to 12.7% in June 2023. Still, the party has made gains as it plateaued at 10% in the second half of 2022.

“The scores of the four main parties are converging, indicating a close race for the European Parliament elections if this trend of erosion of the ruling parties and rising support for the opposition parties continues”, Ștefureac concluded.

In 2024, Romanians can vote in four different elections, including in the EU elections, which are scheduled to be held first.

(Cătălina Mihai | EURACTIV.ro)