The months ahead could finally see a frontrunner emerge to lead the conservative CDU/CSU in the German general election of 2025, as Friedrich Merz, who currently spearheads the opposition, comes under increasing pressure from his regional contenders.
Infighting, mainly over climate protection policies, has seen the coalition of Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s SPD, the Greens and the centre-right FDP plummet in the polls to less than 40% combined. Challengers from Germany’s conservative camp are now gearing up, ready to take the wheel as Scholz’s main contender ahead of the 2025 federal election.
While nominally in the pole position, the heat is on for Merz, leader of the centre-right CDU, the largest opposition party.
“Even though Merz might be thinking otherwise, the question of who will run for chancellor has not been settled for the CDU,” Benjamin Höhne, political scientist at the University of Münster, told EURACTIV.
The CDU leader has come under pressure after a number of slip-ups, as his party has “barely benefitted from the government’s problematic poll ratings”, according to Höhner. While the group is leading in the polls, it has plateaued at around 25-30%.
The group is facing a significant squeeze from the far-right AfD (Alternative for Germany), which is now the second-most popular party in the country, having hoovered up dissatisfied voters.
Ahead of his first, failed run for leadership in 2018, Merz promised he would halve the AfD’s vote share with a more conservative line after the centrist Merkel years. Now he is finally at the helm of his party, and that pressure is increasing.
Competition from Bavaria
A major competitor for Merz is waiting in the wings and will have to pass a first popularity test this autumn: Markus Söder, prime minister of the regional state of Bavaria and leader of the CDU’s Bavarian sister party, CSU. The parties traditionally run a joint candidate for chancellor, which gives Söder a disproportional say on the matter.
It would not be the first time that he made use of it: in 2021, he unsuccessfully challenged Armin Laschet, then leader of the CDU, for the joint candidacy.
“Söder certainly sees himself as a candidate, even though he might be sending signals to the contrary at the moment,” Höhne said.
A triumphant victory at the Bavarian regional elections on 8 October would spark the leadership debate anew, while lower-than-expected results could sideline Söder in the run for leading the party in the election.
Regardless, Merz is not off the hook, as a defeat of the CDU at the simultaneous regional elections in Hesse would further turn up the heat.
Merz’s problem with the far-right
Fending off the competition from the far-right will remain a key aspect for Merz in fending off Söder, who enjoys an advantage in that area.
“Markus Söder’s experience in government has trained him in dealing with the AfD. He has experienced first-hand that constructive policies are key and merely copying the AfD’s rhetoric is not a winning strategy,” Stephan Mayer, a leading CSU MP, told EURACTIV.
The spotlight on the AfD is likely to increase as the second semester marks the kick-off to the 2024 European election campaign, where an AfD victory is no longer unthinkable in Germany.
“The CDU seems unsure what direction to take in the opposition, especially regarding the AfD,” the University of Münster’s Höhne said. In a recent interview, Merz made an ambiguous suggestion of collaborating with the far-right at the local level – triggering a wave of outrage, even from inside his party.
Wolfgang Bosbach, an influential former CDU MP, told die Welt: “I’ve been on board for 51 years … I cannot recall ever to have witnessed such a severe, personal critique of the [party’s] leadership.”
The risk of appearing too soft on the right leaves the conservative Merz vulnerable not just to Söder, but also potential contenders from the CDU’s centrist wing. The prime ministers of North Rhine-Westphalia and Schleswig-Holstein, Hendrik Wüst and Daniel Günther, are starting to position themselves as alternative candidates, Höhne said, explaining that they embody the “wider appeal” crucial to the CDU’s reputation as a “catch-all party”.
No support?
All three of Merz’s would-be challengers notably refrained from defending him after the interview – to the contrary.
“The CSU rejects any form of collaboration with the AfD … We draw a clear line,” Söder tweeted. Wüst merely shared Merz’s own clarification statement while Günther remained silent.
Meanwhile, the Merz camp would prefer to shift the conversation to Germany’s ailing economy. Merz recently tapped Carsten Linnemann, a conservative economist, for the position of the CDU general secretary, removing the centrist Mario Czaja.
“As opposition, we are well-advised to focus on the problematic state of the German economy. The current debate about the AfD only benefits our political opponents,” Klaus Wiener, an MP from Merz’s native state of North Rhine-Westphalia, told EURACTIV.
But as the CDU leader is increasingly going all in with his staff and strategy, he is also running out of chances.
“The more communication slip-ups Merz produces, the less likely it is that he will come out on top,” Höhne predicts.
[Edited by Oliver Noyan/Nathalie Weatherald]
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