Portugal could be headed for snap elections after Prime Minister António Costa’s resignation on Tuesday amid a high-level corruption probe, while polls reveal Costa’s socialist PSD party has lost 11.4% of voting intention since the 2022 parliamentary election.
Costa resigned on Tuesday after it was announced he was being investigated for corruption related to mining and energy concessions, following raids at his official residence and two ministries, as well as several high-profile detentions.
President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa will meet with political parties on Wednesday and his advisors – the ‘Council of State’ – on Thursday, announcing whether he will dissolve parliament and call national elections or appoint a new candidate to try to form a government.
Given the socialist party’s (PS) current absolute majority, de Sousa previously said that any decision by the prime minister to step down would prompt the dissolution of parliament, Euractiv’s partner LUSA reported.
“If the prime minister changes, parliament will be dissolved”, de Sousa said on 24 January 2023, referring to the “theoretical possibility” of another socialist prime minister stepping in.
“Because this majority was formed with a prime minister who ran not just as party leader, but as leader of the government”, he added.
Costa has held office for almost eight years after he was sworn in on 26 November 2015 by former president Aníbal Cavaco Silva.
If elections were held today, PS would most likely lose 11.4% of votes, dropping from a comfortable 41.4% in the 2022 parliament election to a 29%, according to October’s polling average from Europe Elects, taken before the latest scandal.
Only three points below is the opposition’s centre-right party PSD (EPP), led by Luís Montenegro. PSD scored 28% of votes in the 2022 election and is now polling at about 26%.
However, the corruption probe into Costa’s administration could affect voting intention, which is currently unknown as no new polls have been released since the news broke.
Far-right Chega (ID), identified as a ‘hate organisation’ by a leading NGO, has major gains with a projected 13.2%, as opposed to 7.2% in the 2022 parliament election.
The Liberal Initiative and the Left Bloc are each polling at 7%, both seeing slight gains compared to 2022. They are followed by the CDU alliance (The Left) with 4.4% and the Animal Welfare Party (Greens/EFA), polling at 3%.
(Max Griera and Tobias Gerhard Schminke | Euractiv.com and Europe Elects)
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