Portuguese elections: Far-right skyrockets, instability prevails

The Portuguese electorate did not respond to calls for a “useful vote” in Sunday’s legislative elections, resulting in the “most fragmented parliament ever” and with far-right Chega being the “big winner”, according to political experts who spoke to Euractiv’s partner Lusa.

Based on the results published at the time of this article, the centre-right Democratic Alliance (DA)—a coalition between the PSD (EPP), the CDS-PP (EPP), and the PPM (monarchists)—is in first place with 29.5% of the votes, getting 79 lawmakers in the 230-seat legislature.

“The AD won the election,” DA chief Luís Montenegro told his supporters early on Monday, calling on other political parties to “comply with the wish of the Portuguese people”, Reuters reported.

According to data from the General Secretariat of the Ministry of Internal Affairs—Electoral Administration and Europe Elects, the Socialists (PS) are the second most-voted party with 28.7% (77 seats), with far-right Chega coming third, with 18.1% (48 seats).

Chega currently has 12 seats and, therefore, quadrupled its power.

In the previous legislature, the socialists had an absolute majority.

According to official figures, 66.24% of registered voters in Sunday’s snap elections had cast their ballots, resulting in the lowest abstention rate of the last 20 years.

The most fragmented parliament ‘ever’

“It’s a result that shows that the Portuguese didn’t respond to the call for a useful vote and decided to vote sincerely because we have the most fragmented parliament ever. We have to look back to 1985 to have an election in which PS and PSD together had less than 64%,” political scientist Marina Costa Lobo told Lusa.

At a time when the results have not yet been finalised, with the results of the constituencies abroad still to be determined, the researcher from the Institute of Social Sciences at the University of Lisbon (ICS-UL) pointed out that it is not yet known if, for example, the Democratic Alliance comes first, whether it will have more votes and more seats than a “left-wing geringonça”.

“This creates enormous uncertainty, a period of uncertainty not only in terms of instability but also in terms of forming a government,” she said.

Marina Costa Lobo emphasised that Sunday’s election was very well attended. Unlike in 2022, when the PS won an absolute majority due to the “useful vote to prevent a right-wing majority,” this time, they decided to “give politicians and parliamentarians back the ability to form alliances.”

She added that these alliances will depend not only on who forms the government but also on “the action of the President of the Republic and the action of the parties”.

Centrist bloc in sight to isolate Chega?

The political scientist pointed out that more than a million Portuguese voted for Chega, which has become a “consolidated force that will condition the work of the Assembly of the Republic”.

She stressed that it remains to be seen whether the PS and PSD will support each other by standing up to and isolating André Ventura, leader of Chega, or whether a path will be taken to “reinforce left/right polarisation, in the sense of leaving the PSD to Chega and not building bridges between left and right”.

For his part, Ventura said the Sunday’s vote “clearly showed that the Portuguese want a government of the AD with Chega” and noted that Montenegro would be responsible for any political instability if he refused to negotiate.

As for President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa’s role, Marina Costa Lobo considered that if the PS wins in terms of mandates, it will be “a very big disappointment for the president of the Republic” and, with regard to Chega, the Head of State “will do everything possible to create a centrist bloc understanding” that excludes that party.

The president of the Republic called for elections in November 2023 following Prime Minister António Costa’s resignation, refusing to give the PS, which had an absolute majority in parliament, the chance to appoint a new head of government.

António Costa Pinto, a researcher at ICS-UL, considered that “Chega is the big winner of the night”, which managed not only to grow but to structure itself in national terms due to the homogeneous nature of the national distribution of the mandates obtained “and for having conditioned a victory for AD”.

As for government formation scenarios, the researcher believes that the most likely is for AD to form a coalition government with the Liberal Initiative, assuming that the PSD/CDS-PP/PPM coalition ultimately has more MPs than the PS.

“Portugal is used to having minority governments here. The novelty effect is Chega, which is, in fact, an anti-system party that has grown a lot,” emphasised António Costa Pinto, predicting that a coalition of the left is unlikely in the short term if AD has more MPs and, together with IL, more parliamentary seats than the left.

The secretary-general of Portugal’s Socialist Party, PS, said early Monday morning that he would lead the opposition and not support the government in parliament.

The rise of Chega in Portugal reflects a general EU-wide trend ahead of the European elections in June. According to Europe Elects projections, the EU far right is estimated to be the third political force in the new European Parliament.

(Maria João Pereira | Lusa.pt – Edited by Sarantis Michalopoulos, Alice Taylor | Euractiv.com)