Portugal at crossroads as far-right advances ahead of snap elections

After Portugal’s snap elections on 10 March, the nation may be at a crossroads in forming a government, given the exponential growth of the far right, from which all other parties promise to keep their distance.

After eight years of government by the Socialist Party (S&D), most polls predict a shift to the right, with a victory for the Democratic Alliance, a coalition between the Social Democratic Party (centre-right, EPP) and the CDS-PP (conservative right, EPP).

The electoral arithmetic, which since the establishment of democracy on 25 April 1974 has meant alternating power between the Socialists and the Social Democrats, alone or in coalition, is complicated by the announced advance of the far-right Chega (Enough) party, which, according to all the polls, is expected to double the 7.2% it won in 2022 or even more.

If the poll comes true, Portugal could face a period of great political instability unless the promises made during the election campaign are broken to allow a rapprochement between the democratic right and the far right with a view to a majority government solution.

Luís Montenegro, the leader of the right-wing coalition, rejects any possibility of an agreement with André Ventura’s Chega party, reiterating a position that could be echoed after the vote on the 10th: “No is no”.

The leader of the centre-right coalition will only accept an agreement with Rui Rocha’s Liberals, who won 4.9% of the vote in the last general election, guaranteeing that he will not govern if he loses.

Montenegro, however, refuses to say what he will do if the left as a whole achieves a higher result than the so-called democratic right, despite successive challenges from the Socialist General Secretary, Pedro Nuno Santos.

Despite Montenegro’s “no is no” stance, some analysts believe that the PSD will not waste the opportunity to return to power after eight years of fasting, even if it has to reach out to the far-right.

Pedro Magalhães, a political scientist, told RTP that “political discourse is one thing and practice is another”, commenting on a possible agreement between the democratic right and the far right.

“The parties of the radical right are not that difficult to reach an understanding with because they are parties that have few themes, they are parties that focus on themes such as ‘law and order’ ‘, ‘immigration’ and then, for the rest, they display spectacular flexibility,” said Magalhães.

From 10 March, Portugal could join the ranks of European countries such as France, Italy, and the Netherlands, where extreme rights could threaten the government.

(José Pedro Santos | Lusa.pt)