Politics out of reality

Dear readers,

Welcome to EU Politics Decoded, where Benjamin Fox and Eleonora Vasques will bring you a round-up of the latest political news in Europe and beyond every Thursday. In this edition, Eleonora Vasques reports from the Ocean Viking close to the Libyan coastline on the daily reality of Europe’s migration crisis in the Mediterranean Sea.

Editor’s Take: Politics out of reality

How important is it to experience the implementation of EU legislation on the ground in person? Each place and story has its own language and its own written and unwritten rules to understand, explain, and connect with one another.

Yet the coverage of the so-called ‘Brussels bubble’ is often disconnected from the implementation of its legislation on the ground.

When it comes to migration, it is even harder to report what is happening in the middle of the Mediterranean Sea, where even the tiniest snippets of daily reality are out of reach to the outside world.

Therefore the practical implementation of EU law on migration, applied, for instance, at sea, becomes even harder and can only be understood if you spend some time there.

The best way to even try and grasp the complexities of this situation is to spend several weeks on board a boat belonging to an NGO, a member state asset (civil or military), or an EU mission.

In a boat, it is possible to better understand the conditions of people trying to cross the Mediterranean Sea, even if only for a moment.

While we are at our laptop in Brussels writing about an interception, a shipwreck, a delayed rescue, or the latest discussion among EU ministers in the Council on “migrant quotas”, we are spared sea sickness, the necessity to drink more water than usual, the disorientation and, more importantly, the real – huge – dimension of the Mediterranean Sea.

These elements are essential for understanding the nature of search and rescue activities, as well as the actors involved, factors to be considered, and the risks posed when it comes to human trafficking.

In any rescue of an overcrowded boat, at any moment, a slight movement of someone onboard or a high wave can cause the boat to sink and people to drown in seconds.

Search and rescue operations are, by definition, unpredictable. It can take weeks or a few hours of patrolling, and rescue can happen during the day or the middle of the night.

These elements are fundamental to understand when trying to contextualise the EU’s enthusiasm for striking agreements with countries outside the bloc that aim to ‘contain migration’ and ‘fight human trafficking’.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has said several times that the EU must help those in need and return those with no right to stay.

The problem is, in a human trafficking network, the deciding who fits into which category is almost impossible. Each person that arrives to cross the Mediterranean Sea is a victim of the business and should be treated as such.

However, categorising and identifying a group of people as ‘hostile’ because they are migrants rather than refugees is easier than explaining that reality and then connecting it to the narrative of the Brussels bubble.

Capitals-in-brief

Sanchez’s path to power. A new opinion poll suggests that Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez could cling on to power alongside the new progressive Sumar party despite his socialist party being narrowly defeated by the centre-right Partido Popular. Sanchez’s PSOE is projected to take 31.2%, compared to 31.4% for the PP, according to a survey by Centro for Sociological Investigations. Sumar is expected to outperform the far-right VOX party, the PP’s most likely coalition partner. Most previous polls have forecast a comfortable win for the PP.

Referendum will be held on EU migration plan, says Morawiecki. Poland will hold a referendum on the country’s participation in the EU’s migrant relocation scheme, conservative Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki confirmed earlier this week, indicating that the poll will probably be held alongside parliamentary elections in autumn. Warsaw was one of two governments to oppose the agreement among EU home affairs ministers in June.

Politicians trade insults following riots. France’s political parties have bickered over who is responsible for the riots and social unrest that has engulfed its cities; Prime Minister Elisabeth Borne accused the leftist La France Insoumise of refusing to condemn the violence adding LFI president Mathilde Panot said that “there will be no return to calm if there is no justice”.

Four-way split ahead of EU polls. Romania’s leading liberal and social democrat parties are likely to suffer heavy losses at next year’s European elections, a new poll has suggested, with the liberal USR and far-right AUR poised to make gains at their expense.

Inside the institutions

Election law scepticism. Most EU governments are reluctant to agree to an ambitious reform of the bloc’s electoral law, which governs the European Parliament elections, according to a leaked survey of opinions carried out by the outgoing Swedish Council presidency. That increases the chances that the European Parliament’s hopes of creating transnational candidate lists ahead of next June’s elections will be kicked into the long grass.

Make more European babies. Hungary wants to put family policy and the broader question of Europe’s demography at the heart of its six-month EU council presidency next year. Europe’s ageing population increases economic demand for migrant workers, but Judit Varga, the governing Fidesz party’s EU elections coordinator, said that Hungary will seek to address this via promoting family policy across the bloc.

Jourová gives green light on Schengen membership. Bulgaria and Romania should join the borderless Schengen zone this autumn, European Commission Vice-President Věra Jourová said on Wednesday (5 July) as she presented the EU executive’s annual rule of law reports, confirming that the EU executive would move to end the Cooperation and Verification Mechanism it has applied to both countries.

What we are reading

The French republic is stronger than often given credit for despite the wave of social unrest and riots, argues Ambrose Evans Pritchard in the Daily Telegraph.

Russia’s war against Ukraine has forced Germany to re-examine its place and role in the world, writes Annalena Baerbock in the Guardian.

The next week in politics

MEPs will gather in Strasbourg for their final monthly plenary session before the summer recess. A decisive vote awaits on Wednesday on the Nature Restoration Law, with EPP lawmakers leading a charge to shoot down the entire file.

Meanwhile, energy and environment ministers will meet in the Council on Tuesday and Wednesday (11/12 July), while the bloc’s finance ministers gather the following day.

Thanks for reading. If you’d like to contact us for leaks, tips or comments, drop us a line at [email protected] / [email protected] or contact us on Twitter: @EleonorasVasques & @benfox83