Polish opposition must not waste chance as snap elections unlikely, says expert

Poland is unlikely to go back to the polls for a snap election even if the opposition’s ability to form a new government is currently uncertain, Olgierd Annusiewicz, a political analyst at Warsaw University, told Euractiv.pl.

The EU and many Western countries welcomed the results of Sunday’s general election, which gave Tusk’s pro-EU Democratic Party, in opposition since 2015, a chance to oust the ruling conservative Law and Justice (PiS) party.

However, forming a coalition may prove difficult as Donald Tusk’s centre-liberal Civic Coalition (KO), the centrist Third Way and the Left hold different positions on many issues, including abortion, social policy and taxation.

The latest polls published Tuesday had PiS polling at 35.4%, followed by Civic Coalition with 30.7%, Third Way with 14.4%, the Left with 8.6% and the Confederation with 7.2%.

With the possibility of early elections, the stakes are even higher for the opposition.

“The chances of another electoral success after failing to form a government are slim. Even though PiS lost (with a worse result than the three opposition blocs combined), it still has a lot of determined supporters,” the expert said.

However, new elections are a highly doubtful scenario, said Annusiewicz, confirming that “the results of the elections are clear,” he added.

Governing in a coalition is always tricky, especially at the start of a mandate, as parties who try to differentiate themselves during the election campaign now have to work together, he stressed, calling it “a natural thing, as smaller parties fear being swallowed up by larger ones”.

Duda to remain loyal

It is now up to President Andrzej Duda to appoint the next prime minister. Annusiewicz believes Duda will remain loyal to his party and appoint either the current prime minister, Mateusz Morawiecki, or another PiS candidate to form a new government.

With PiS unable to secure a majority in parliament on its own or in a coalition with Confederation, attempts are expected to be made to attract MPs from opposition groups.

“It is unlikely that PiS will manage to win a majority this way, but it is not impossible,” Annusiewicz said.

On election night, Morawiecki said that the PiS had by no means ruled out talks with the Third Way, whose programme seems closest to that of the PiS. However, Szymon Hołownia, one of the leaders of Third Way, said that the alliance would prefer to work with other opposition parties.

KO MEP Andrzej Halicki told Euractiv.pl on election night that Tusk should be appointed prime minister. He said the president must also consider Poland’s interest in forming a new government as soon as possible.

Ultra-conservatives unlikely to collaborate with Tusk

Asked if he could picture KO struggling to come to terms with the more economically liberal left, preferring to work with the Confederation, Annusiewicz doubted that such a scenario would come to pass.

“What divides the parties the most is the worldview issues, which are clear between the opposition and the Confederation,” he said.

As for a coalition between KO, Third Way and the Confederation, the expert believes it would be a weaker coalition and cause image problems for the right-wing Confederation, which would be forced to cooperate with the European Union or soften its position on Ukraine.

It would be better for the Civic Platform to remain in opposition and try to attract voters from the PiS than to join the liberal government and be criticised by the PiS for cooperating with Tusk, Annusiewicz concluded.

(Aleksandra Krzysztoszek | Euractiv.pl)