PiS faces last chance to gain parliamentary majority

The Polish conservative PiS party faces its last chance to form an alliance in a bid to gain a parliamentary majority after its de facto defeat in last month’s general elections was saved by President Andrzej Duda, who appointed PiS’ incumbent Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki to form a new government.

Although PiS came first in the parliamentary elections on 15 October, Tusk’s Civic Coalition (KO, EPP), together with the centrist Third Way (Renew/EPP) alliance and the Left (S&D), won more than 54% and secured a majority of 248 seats in the 460-seat lower house, the Sejm.

Faced with a choice between incumbent Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki of the PiS and opposition leader Donald Tusk, Duda exercised his constitutional right and appointed Morawiecki as the winning party’s candidate to form a new government.

According to the constitution, the president is obliged to convene the Sejm no later than 30 days after the elections. The inaugural sitting will take place on Monday. During the first sitting, the incumbent prime minister is dismissed but remains in power until a new one replaces him.

Once the old government has been dismissed, the president can appoint a new prime minister. However, in Poland’s recent history, presidents have often announced their appointment decision before the dismissal of the old government, as was the case with Duda and Morawiecki.

The constitution does not set out any requirements for a prime ministerial candidate. However, when appointing a new prime minister, the president must consider his or her ability to win a vote of confidence in parliament, a requirement that the opposition says Duda ignored by appointing Morawiecki.

As the newly appointed prime minister, Morawiecki will have two weeks after the first session of parliament to present the proposed composition of his new government to Duda.

Suppose the president approves and the new government is sworn in. In that case, Morawiecki will have the remaining two weeks to announce his programme in a parliamentary speech and ask for a vote of confidence, which requires an absolute majority of votes in the presence of at least half of the lawmakers.

Parliament’s turn

If the new government does not win an absolute majority, it is dismissed, and the Sejm takes the initiative. At least 46 out of 460 deputies, or one-tenth of the total, can propose their candidate for prime minister.

The candidates are then put to a vote. Again, the candidate must win an absolute majority of the votes cast, with at least half of the chamber present.

Once elected, the candidate presents his or her programme and proposes the new government’s composition to the Sejm, which again approves it by an absolute majority.

The Sejm has 14 days to elect a prime minister and a government. In this case, the president may not reject the decision of the Sejm.

If the Sejm fails to elect a government, the president again has 14 days to nominate a prime minister and a government.

The president may nominate the same person for the post of prime minister as he nominated in the first step, even though he did not receive a parliamentary majority.

Opposition’s coalition deal

While the president is not expected to block any of Morawiecki’s proposed ministers, the PiS will likely lose the parliament vote given its lack of a majority.

The only real possibility for the PiS to secure a majority would be to form a coalition with the Polish People’s Party (PSL, EPP), a member of the Third Way Alliance, which has rejected talks with the current ruling camp in favour of cooperation with other opposition parties.

This is an opportunity for Tusk’s camp, which has a majority in the Sejm. As a result, the Sejm is likely to elect Tusk as the new prime minister and approve his government without the president having to retake the initiative.

Meanwhile, the three coalition blocs have signed a coalition agreement. Its key points include raising public sector wages to combat the brain drain, increasing health spending, simplifying the tax system, fighting corruption in state-owned companies and tackling the shortage of affordable housing.

The agreement signed on Friday “is a set of guidelines for our (future government’s) work,” Tusk said.

“First and foremost, I signed that deal with you. And for you,” he addressed his supporters via the X platform.

“It was worth it,” added Michał Kołodziejczak, the leader of the AgroUnia farmers’ movement and likely a new Agriculture Minister in Tusk’s government, whose joining KO was a big topic during the election campaign.

The agreement met with criticism from PiS.

MEP Patryk Jaki called it the first coalition agreement in post-communist history that announced an “attack on the state system, breaking the law, limiting freedom and prosecuting those professing traditional values.” He did not specify what points of the deal he was referring to.

Asked whether the opposition has already agreed on the composition of the government it wants to form, Tusk admitted that some details are still being discussed.

(Aleksandra Krzysztoszek | Euractiv.pl)