Migration law burnout

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Welcome to EU Politics Decoded where Benjamin Fox and Eleonora Vasques will bring you a round-up of the latest political news in Europe and beyond every Thursday. In this edition, we look at the race against time to adopt the EU’s new migration laws.

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Editor’s Take: Migration law burnout

The journey from proposal to law in the European Union legislative path is painfully slow and equally complicated.

The average file takes more than a year and a half to be concluded. At the far end of the spectrum of complication is the so-called “New Pact for Migration and Asylum” that the European Commission published in September 2020, a handful of legislative files, all of them connected to each other.

The package does not concern agreements with third countries or search and rescue (SAR) activities in the Mediterranean.

The first are covered by member states in the Council as part of the EU’s ‘external dimension’. That means it is the foreign policy section of migration, where EU ministers vote with unanimity.

SAR activities are already regulated by the international law that the EU subscribed to. And that adds another layer of complexity to the picture.

Why clarify these points? Because politicians use a narrative in which they mention the pact and put together these aspects of EU politics. They are connected, but not related.

So, what is in the pact? Everything related to the management of third-country nationals arriving at the EU borders, reception, registration, the management of international protection application, the secondary movements (or even better said, the ‘not’ secondary movements), returns and resettlements.

What is in the pact was clarified in September last year, when the EU institutions made a commitment to conclude the migration files (which are a total of ten pieces of legislation) before the end of the next legislative mandate following the elections in June 2024.

The so-called roadmap has the ambition to give the EU a continental approach to migration, a goal that the EU has tried and failed to reach multiple times before. Why? Because migration law is subjected to heavy political pressure, instrumentalisation of the topic by governments during election campaigns, and high media attention.

Media coverage of migration is not a bad thing. What is bad in the picture is how migration is often used as a driver of votes. That leads to bad lawmaking. Let us explain why.

EU lawmakers are in a hurry to agree the pact in the coming months. Being in a rush is never a good thing when it comes to deciding sensitive issues, and having a proper risk assessment.

They are in a hurry because the next EU Council presidencies after the June 2024 European elections will be Hungary and Poland, two presidencies who would see it as political gain if they are able to tell their countries that they are blocking Brussels in approving migration acts.

There is a window of opportunity in the next few months that, if missed, will then be closed for a while, on top of the existing difficulties of legislative procedure

Maybe some files of the pact will be approved before next June. But how robust and valuable is legislation approved in a hurry under massive political pressure? At the same time, can Europe afford to again fail to have an EU legal framework for migration?

If EU legislators reach the goal, the next mandate could well open with the chapter of a new story: the implementation of measures that sounded acceptable to ministers and civil servants in Brussels but may be very unsuccessful on the ground. That is the likely consequence of legislative burnout.

Who is Electioneering

Morawiecki’s referendum gamble. Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Jakub Morawiecki reckons that holding a referendum on EU migration policy – in particular plans to establish a quota system to relocate asylum seekers – on 15 October, the same day as the next general election in the country, will help his United Right coalition stay in power. United Right, led by the Law and Justice party, has a narrow poll lead of around 5-7 points over the centre-right Civic Coalition according to most surveys. For the moment, however, there is little evidence that the referendum is having an effect on voters’ minds.

Capitals-in-brief

Lampedusa crisis. EU Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen presented a ten-point emergency plan for Italy on Sunday (17 September) to help it handle migrant arrivals after a record number of people landed on its island of Lampedusa over the past week.

Four-tier Europe. A Franco-German paper commissioned by French Europe Minister Laurence Boone and her counterpart Anna Lührmann has proposed that the EU could move forward in four circles: the inner circle; the EU itself; associate members; and the European Political Community. The paper is designed to play into wider EU talks on treaty change and enlargement.

Le Pen says Russian loan repaid. Marine Le Pen’s Rassemblement National says it has fully repaid a €9.4 million loan from the Russia-based First Czech Russian Bank (FCRB), taken out to finance the 2015 departmental and regional elections campaign, in a bid to put an end to accusations that it is close to Vladimir Putin’s Russian regime.

Macron meets UK Labour leader. French President Emmanuel Macron met UK opposition leader Keir Starmer on Tuesday (19 September), as part of a diplomatic charm offensive by the Labour Party leader, who has mooted the prospect of much closer UK-EU ties should he translate a 20-point poll lead into an election win in 2024.

Inside the institutions

Pact drama. The European Parliament has suspended negotiations on two files in the EU’s proposed migration pact if EU ministers do not proceed with the so-called ‘crisis management’ regulation, MEPs announced on Wednesday (20 September). The decision was taken by MEPs in the Asylum Contact Group, which leads the Parliament’s negotiations on EU immigration and asylum reform.

Budget impasse. The European Parliament will likely reject the EU Council’s 2021 budget implementation on Wednesday, continuing a 13-year row that raises questions on democratic accountability and competency hoarding.

Schengen code. EU lawmakers will start negotiations on revisions to the Schengen code in the coming days, in a bid to harmonise rules on border controls or lift them altogether in cases such as a health crisis or other kinds of threats.

What we are reading

The rise of far-right leaders means Europe no longer welcomes refugees, writes Shada Islam in the Guardian.

Bethany Elliott asks if Poland has run out of patience with providing financial support for Ukraine in Unherd.

The war in Ukraine is reshaping geopolitics, and strengthening the voice of the Global South, writes Howard French in Foreign Policy.

The next week in politics

After a week dominated by the UN General Assembly in New York, EU ministers return for a series of policy meetings in Brussels. On Wednesday 27 September, General Affairs ministers will prepare the ground for an informal EU summit on 6 October and a gathering of the European Political Community on 5 October.

Meanwhile, justice and home affairs meet on 28 September, with the latest impasse with the European Parliament on the negotiation of the EU migration pact likely to top the agenda.

Thanks for reading. If you’d like to contact us for leaks, tips or comments, drop us a line at [email protected] / [email protected] or contact us on Twitter: @EleonorasVasques & @benfox83

[Edited by Zoran Radosavljevic]