EU Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen visited Italy again this weekend for an Italy-Africa summit, just a few weeks after her trip to flood-hit Forlì in Emilia-Romagna together with Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni.
The hugs and smiles between the two have not gone unnoticed five months before the EU elections, particularly as they come from different political families.
Von der Leyen comes from the centre-right European People’s Party (EPP), while Meloni is the leader of the right-wing Fratelli d’Italia and president of the Conservatives and Reformists Party (ECR Party).
The two women have forged a strong relationship, with some suggesting calling it a win-win game for both: Von der Leyen gets critical support for another mandate at the Commission helm, if she confirms she will run, while Meloni brings the much-needed Recovery Fund home – and gets a foothold for the ECR in Brussels after June.
However, their good relationship could pose risks for the ECR as the Polish PiS party – one of the biggest ECR members – is unwilling to support von der Leyen, especially as EPP’s Donald Tusk, the new Polish prime minister, is unravelling the far-right party’s grip on the judiciary and media, built over several terms.
Meloni could find herself in the position the PiS was in 2019: endorsing a candidate who goes radically against your ideology – because you cannot afford to vote against the Commission president when you are in government and will appoint a commissioner.
Von der Leyen visited Forlì two times. The second time (17 January) coincided with the decision to allocate €1.2 billion to Italy from the National Recovery and Resilience Plan (PNRR).
Migration is another topic where the two found common ground.
Last July, they went with Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte to Tunisia. Then last September, on the island of Lampedusa, von der Leyen announced a 10-point plan on migration, defending the Meloni government’s position while it was under the pressure of migration waves.
The need for Italy’s Recovery Fund’s success
Together with Spain, Italy is one of the main beneficiaries of the Recovery Fund, expected to receive over €200 billion.
Pundits in Rome suggest that both Meloni and von der Leyen need a successful Recovery Fund story in Italy, the EU’s third-biggest economy.
The Commission has so far shown remarkable flexibility towards Italy, both in amending the National Recovery and Resilience Plan (NRRP) and in allowing Italy to change the order of certain milestones to receive EU funds.
The day after von der Leyen’s visit to Forlì, where she praised Italy’s NRRP, EU Affairs Minister Raffaele Fitto went to Brussels to discuss with the Commission’s task force the release of the fifth instalment of €18 billion. The government hopes to receive it in the first half of this year.
Meloni’s support is crucial
Meanwhile, Meloni’s support can help von der Leyen’s possible bid for a second term, although she has not announced her candidacy yet.
According to Professor Gianfranco Pasquino, also a member of the prestigious Accademia Nazionale dei Lincei, “it costs Meloni nothing to vote for von der Leyen”.
Pasquino noted that the ongoing game between the two can be partly explained by Meloni’s wish to increase her EU influence, while keeping at bay her problematic government ally Matteo Salvini, who flirts with Europe’s extreme right.
But sources in Rome told Euractiv that Meloni’s cosy ties with von der Leyen may soon be tested as Meloni’s public rhetoric is going to become increasingly aggressive closer to the EU elections.
In July 2019, von der Leyen was elected by wafer-thin nine votes in the European Parliament, with 383 in favour against the required majority of 374, and 327 deputies voted against.
The support of Italy’s 5 Star Movement was decisive for von der Leyen. At the time, the populist movement was in full bloom, leading for the first time Italy’s government in a controversial alliance with the Salvini-led Lega (ID).
Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte – then a political newcomer, and now president of the 5 Star Movement – pushed his MEPs to vote in favour of von der Leyen, while the Lega MEPs voted against.
This started a process that led to the collapse of their coalition government, with the 5 Star Movement partnering up with the Democratic Party for a new Conte government that lasted until February 2021.
Meloni’s Fratelli d’Italia wants to pick the next Italian Commissioner. This makes their support for the next Commission president all the more likely as it would be very difficult to propose a commissioner to a president you did not support.
‘Likely’ to back von der Leyen
In 2024, von der Leyen may need the support of Meloni’s MEPs just as she needed the support of the 5 Star Movement in 2019. And Meloni wants one of her own people in the next Commission.
A Fratelli d’Italia lawmaker who spoke to Euractiv on condition of anonymity said Meloni was likely to back von der Leyen for the Commission presidency in the European Parliament vote.
However, it is not yet known whether Fratelli d’Italia will join a pro-EU majority. For the time being, Meloni is not keen to make any deals with the Socialists, according to the lawmaker.
But many in Meloni’s party are hoping for a change in the balance after the EU elections, with the possibility of a new majority formed by the Liberals, the EPP, and the ECR, although both liberals and EPP have rejected such a scenario.
ECR co-chair in the EU Parliament and Fratelli d’Italia member Nicola Procaccini told Euractiv that, “even if the indication was on Ursula von der Leyen [for the Commission], it would be with completely different political conditions from 2019 and therefore more favourable to Italy and to the positions of our government”.
Poland causes Meloni headaches
However, Poland’s PiS party – a strong member of the ECR – is not happy with von der Leyen and could split the conservative group if Meloni supports her too openly.
Radosław Fogiel, a PiS lawmaker, told Euractiv that the topic of von der Leyen “is not really discussed within the party” but expressed dissatisfaction.
“Her actions have very often been political, she interfered numerous times in Polish affairs, supporting Donald Tusk’s camp,” he said.
Fogiel also emphasised that von der Leyen “betrayed” Warsaw with the milestones in order for the Recovery Fund payments to be launched after the Commission froze them due to rule of law concerns.
For payments to start, Poland had to meet certain milestones agreed with the Commission, mainly related to the independence of the judiciary. Some of those changes were enacted but the Commission did not deem them enough, Fogiel said.
“And now it turned out that no milestones were needed except for Donald Tusk coming to power,” Fogiel said.
Will ECR seek an EU top job?
According to EU election forecasts, Meloni’s ECR may be the fourth largest group in the EU Parliament.
If she gets the support of far-right ID, ECR could seek an EU top job, usually captured by mainstream EPP, S&D and liberals (Renew).
“I think Italy could get a major top job,” Jan Zahradil, a Czech MEP for the ODS (ECR), who was the ECR’s Spitzenkandidat in 2019, told Euractiv.cz, adding that ODS should back Fratelli d’Italia to get it.
Václav Smolka, a spokesman for the Czech Prime Minister Petr Fiala (ODS, ECE), told Euractiv.cz that they are “already discussing future positions in advance, knowing that if we want to push something through, we have to do it discreetly. This is exactly how we are now negotiating with key players.”
(Simone Cantarini, Roberto Castaldi | Euractiv.it – Aleksandra Krzysztoszek, Euractiv.pl | Charles Szumski)
[Edited by Sarantis Michalopoulos – Zoran Radosavljevic]
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