Many believe the results of the Italian elections may significantly impact the European political landscape in the complex interaction between European and national politics.
The Italian right-wing coalition won a broad parliamentary majority with 44% of the votes. The centre-left coalition, Azione-Italia Viva (Renew Europe), and the Five Star Movement (M5S) got 48%. The parties which supported the Conte 2 government could have won.
In the past, the right always had more votes. It lost in 1996 and 2006 because it was divided. Even in 2018, the right-wing coalition had more votes than the M5S.
The coalition includes the European People Party (Forza Italia-EPP), the Conservatives and Reformists (Brothers of Italy/Fratelli d’Italia- ECR), and Identity and Democracy (Lega/ID). Still, a merger of the ECRand far-right ID is impossible, according to Brothers of Italy MEP Nicola Procaccini (ECR).
The ECR will lead the governments in Italy and Poland and participate in Sweden and Latvia. If Orbàn’s Fidesz party joined, and Vox (ECR) and the Partido Popular (EPP) win the Spanish election, the ECR-participated governments would form a blocking minority in the Council (35% of the EU population), becoming indispensable to pass any EU legislation.
The ECR may try to accredit itself as a mainstream party to forge a right-wing alliance with the EPP – as in Italy, Sweden and Spain – and distance itself from Identity and Democracy, designated as the only extremist right-wing party to be marginalised in the European Parliament.
The Italian elections saw the birth of an Italian branch of Renew Europe and a leftist turn of the Five Star Movement (still not affiliated with any EU political group) to play a role similar to Jean-Luc Mélenchon in France. Both aimed at squeezing the Democratic Party (S&D) electoral base. They copy France, but so far unsuccessfully: unlike the French Socialists, the Democratic Party still has more votes than the M5S or Renew.
The Italian elections show that electoral systems matter as division means defeat, while union equates to victory.
At the EU level, there is a tradition of legislative cooperation. If this situation stands, the cohesion of the right-wing coalition in Italy will be difficult because the EPP usually votes for EU laws, while the ECR and ID do not.
If Meloni took advantage of her victory to ally with the EPP, this would change the European political landscape.
It could push Renew Europe, the Socialists and Democrats and the Greens to ally, creating a bipolar European competition, with only ID and the Left United at the fringes. In such a scenario, the 2024 European election could see a coalition candidate to the presidency of the European Commission, even if a party candidate is more likely given the proportional electoral system.
(Roberto Castaldi | EURACTIV.it)
Source: euractiv.com
