Meloni is bluffing on the migration pact, but with whom?

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Welcome to EU Politics Decoded where Benjamin Fox and Eleonora Vasques will bring you a round-up of the latest political news in Europe and beyond every Thursday. In this edition, we take a look at the latest events surrounding the EU’s slow-moving migration pact.

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Editor’s Take: Meloni is bluffing on the migration pact, but with whom?

Politics is famously the art of the compromise. This is particularly the case in the EU, where lawmakers often have to find common ground when positions are very different, and when those in power try to find a solution to situations that are extremely contradictory and chaotic.

That is the situation facing the pact on migration and asylum, a package of ten legislative files that EU institutions are negotiating and aim to approve before mid-February.

The high political pressure around the package, together with the lack of time, is making the negotiations particularly challenging for many of the actors.

In the picture, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni is arguably in the most complicated position.

On one hand, Meloni is a political ally with the Hungarian and Polish Prime Ministers Viktor Orban and Mateusz Morawiecki. Both countries are vocally opposed to the pact, mainly as a means of propaganda in their national context, ahead of the European elections – and for Poland ahead of their national polls due on 15 October.

On the other, Italy is geographically a frontline country, among those most exposed to migrant arrivals, and for this reason, needs to deliver a deal for Italian citizens. If the EU does not manage to find an agreement before mid-February, it would be the second failure in ten years to find a common framework on migration and another chance won’t come around any time soon.

The ambivalence of Meloni began to be more evident this month. EU ministers found an agreement on the Crisis Management Regulation this week, the file which will be activated in times of ‘crises’ when important migratory flows occur.

This came after a week of delay. Last week Italy opposed the deal because they wanted specifically to add new text deeming NGOs as a potential cause of so-called ‘instrumentalisation’. The article was eventually cut, but EU ministers kept the definition of instrumentalisation so broad that NGOs still can be included.

Was this manoeuvre only a bluff that Meloni used to please her friends in Eastern Europe? The Italian government sold the news as a victory for Italy. But in the process, they may have created a delay that, with such severe time pressure, could be fatal for the whole legislative process. And eventually backfire on Italy itself.

Was that a bluff? If so, it is not clear with whom Meloni is bluffing.

Who is Electioneering

Fico’s Pyrrhic win. In the week following Slovakia’s general election on 30 September, the media focus has largely been on the poll victory of Robert Fico’s social democrat Smer, and the possible risks posed by Fico’s cosy relationship with Russian President Vladimir Putin. The Party of European Socialists has threatened to kick Smer out of the pan-EU socialist family.

But Smer made only modest gains (4 seats) to secure 42 seats in the 150-seat parliament.

The real victors, and kingmakers in a new government, are Michal Šimečka’s Progressive Slovakia and Peter Pellegrini’s centre-left Hlas, who came from nowhere to win 32 and 27 seats, respectively. Their gains were largely at the expense of the conservative OĽaNO.

Talks on a new coalition will determine Slovakia’s political direction but rumours of a significant pro-Russian shift look like an exaggeration.

Capitals-in-brief

Macron sets out plans to rewrite the constitution. In a speech commemorating the 65th anniversary of the French constitution, President Emmanuel Macron called for the constitution to be rewritten to extend and simplify the use of referendums on Wednesday and reiterated his goal of securing a constitutional right to abortion. However, without a parliamentary majority, he is reliant on support from centre-right and leftist parties.

Sánchez looks for Catalan support. Acting Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez has been formally asked to form a new government this week, and the socialist party leader has made ‘harmony’ in Catalonia a priority for his administration as he will need the support of several Catalan separatist parties. Sánchez’s nomination comes after Alberto Núñez Feijóo, the leader of the conservative People’s Party (PP/EPP), which narrowly won the most votes in July’s general election, failed to obtain a majority in parliament.

Michel: EU leaders should back Ukraine accession talks. EU leaders should give the green light to opening formal accession negotiations with Ukraine and Moldova at December’s EU summit, European Council President Charles Michel told reporters this week.

Germany opens talks on bilateral asylum pacts. Amid growing criticism of its migration policy, the German government has opened talks with six countries – Georgia, Moldova, Kenya, Colombia, Uzbekistan, and Kyrgyzstan – in a bid to strike bilateral agreements to curb the number of new asylum applications.

Rumours of a technocrat government a ‘conspiracy’, says Meloni. Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni has dismissed reports that her government could fall and make way for a technocrat government similar to those led in recent years by Mario Monti and Mario Draghi as a ‘conspiracy’.

Inside the institutions

Socialist rift with Fico deepens. The Slovak social democrat party of Robert Fico appears to be edging towards the margins of the pan-European socialist family as the row over his party’s pro-Russian stance continues to escalate. PES party president Stefan Löfven has warned that if Fico’s rhetoric continues and is implemented by his government, he will launch the formal process to exclude Smer from the socialist party. Fico’s party won last weekend’s general elections by a seven-point margin.

EU reform manifesto. A group of 32 former top EU politicians, officials and economists have called for institutional reforms including a new central fiscal capacity for the EU, and completion of the Banking Union and Capital Markets Union in a new manifesto published ahead of this week’s EU summit in Granada.

From pen to biometrics. The European Parliament is moving forward with plans to replace the system of manual signature by MEPs with a system of biometric fingerprints as proof of presence at parliamentary meetings, according to an internal document seen by Euractiv.

Recovery funds on the table as Brussels seeks Orbán’s support. EU officials are mulling over whether to unblock billions of euros allocated to Hungary as part of the EU’s post-pandemic recovery fund that were frozen over rule of law disputes with Viktor Orbán’s government as they seek to secure Budapest’s approval for an aid package for Ukraine and for Kyiv to open accession talks to join the bloc.

Ministers agree deal on crisis management law. EU ministers have agreed to classify ‘non-state actors’ such as NGOs on a par with Russia and Belarus in causing increased levels of migration, as part of their position on a new crisis management law agreed on Wednesday (4 October).

What we are reading

Three months after general elections, Spain still has no government and faces years of political sclerosis, writes María Ramírez in the Guardian.

Following the chaos of Boris Johnson and Liz Truss, UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has sought to make competence the defining characteristic of his government. But what do his Tories stand for, asks Camilla Cavendish in the Financial Times.

Enlargement is regularly touted as the EU’s most effective foreign policy. So why has the bloc taken on no new members in over a decade, questions Alice Tidey for Euronews.

The next week in politics

After EU interior ministers broke their deadlock on the draft crisis management regulation, trilogue negotiations between MEPs and ministers are set to re-open on several files in the EU migration and asylum pact.

The European Parliament, meanwhile, has a week of political group and committee meetings ahead of its second Strasbourg plenary session in October.

Thanks for reading. If you’d like to contact us for leaks, tips or comments, drop us a line at [email protected] / [email protected] or contact us on Twitter: @EleonorasVasques & @benfox83

[Edited by Zoran Radosavljevic]