PARIS — Three Parisian judges will deliver their verdict Monday in an embezzlement case against Marine Le Pen, the leader of France’s far-right Rassemblement National. The verdict could upend French politics as prosecutors seek a five-year ban on public office that would prevent her from running in the 2027 presidential election.
The political future of Marine Le Pen and perhaps all of France will be decided in courtroom 2.01 of the Paris Criminal Court.
The politician and 24 other members of the National Rally (formerly the National Front) are accused of embezzling 3 million euros between 2004 and 2016 by running what prosecutors called a “system” that used European Parliament aides for party work in France.
If found guilty, Le Pen faces five years in prison, a fine of 300,000 euros and, most importantly, a five-year ban on running in political elections, which could come into effect immediately.
For now, the RN leader remains confident, insisting that such a decision will not affect her party's ability to “defend the French people” or “hold the government to account if necessary.”
However, if the judges follow the prosecutor's recommendations, Le Pen will not be able to run for a fourth time in the 2027 presidential election, triggering an unprecedented shake-up of the far-right movement.
Le Pen will not be forced to give up her seat in France's National Assembly even if convicted, as long as appeals are ongoing.
In 2022, the RN leader won 41.45% of the vote in the second round of the presidential election against Emmanuel Macron, the highest result ever achieved by the French far right in a national election. In 2002, her father Jean-Marie Le Pen won just 17.8% of the vote against Jacques Chirac.
Bardella, successor
If Le Pen is found guilty, the likely successor as RN leader would be the party's 29-year-old president, Jordan Bardella, who is seen as a rising right-wing political star.
“In the presidential race, Bardella could advance a much more economically liberal program than Marine Le Pen, seeking to absorb what remains of the mainstream right,” said political scientist Jean-Yves Camus, an expert on the far right.
Bardella, a member of the European Parliament who also leads the Patriots for Europe group at EU level, has never been directly elected to office in France and does not have strong regional roots. However, he enjoys a strong following among young people on social media and is actively cultivating his international image.
In February, Jordan Bardella attended the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) in Washington, D.C., and advocated for the creation of a “ministry of government efficiency” in France, modeled on Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE). Just a few days ago, he was in Jerusalem for a conference on anti-Semitism organized by the Israeli far right.
Could that make him a stronger presidential candidate than Le Pen? Many political observers seem to think so, arguing that she remains too smart from past defeats and still bears the weight of her father’s deeply divisive political legacy. Some are even hoping for leniency from the court on Monday, fearing that a guilty verdict could clear the way for Bardella to fight for the Elysee Palace.
However, it remains difficult to predict the broader impact of Marine Le Pen's possible conviction on French politics.
“If you look at the last ten years, no one has managed to unite the far right behind one candidate,” notes Jean-Yves Camus. “I don't understand why Bardella will succeed where others have failed.”
“A disaster for democracy”
Since the trial began on October 1, RN officials have consistently denounced what they call the “politicization” of the French justice system and the alleged bias of the judges presiding over the case. If their leader is convicted, they warn, it would be a “disaster for democracy.”
So far, no one in the party has broken ranks, not even Jordan Bardella, although he candidly noted last November that in order to represent the party, one must have a “clean past.”
Le Pen has also received support from French Prime Minister François Bayrou, who said in January that the prospect of her being declared bankrupt was “deeply worrying.” But it’s worth noting that just days later, centrist Bayrou faced a fight for his political survival during the battle over the 2025 budget in parliament.
“I will wait for the verdict and then I will make a decision,” Le Pen said of her political future in an interview with Le Figaro on March 25.
RN does not seem to have an official “Plan B” in case of the party leader’s conviction. “We don’t talk about it – we can deny it. It’s the one topic that no one wants to discuss,” an influential RN MP admitted in an interview with Le Figaro a few months ago.
In order not to escalate the situation, RN representatives prefer to remain cautious: “Until March 31, for each (re)membership, you will receive an A4 poster signed by Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella,” the party said in a newsletter distributed on Friday.
[BTS]
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