Looming political crises send Bulgarian institutions into uncharted territory

Bulgaria is heading for its sixth parliamentary election in three years after former European Commissioner Mariya Gabriel (GERB, EPP) withdrew her candidacy for the prime minister position on Monday, despite earlier political agreements confirming she would receive the post.

The breakdown of government negotiations between the country’s two largest political formations, GERB and We Continue the Change-Democratic Bulgaria (PP-DB), has sent Bulgaria’s institutions into unknown territory following the constitutional changes made at the end of last year.

“The lack of agreement during the political negotiations renders the procedure for electing the prime minister and the government meaningless,” Gabriel said in her position that was sent to parliament.

Nine months ago, former enemies GERB and PP-DB cobbled together a cabinet led by PP-DB’s Nikolai Denkov on the condition he would resign on 6 March and Gabriel would take over as prime minister. However, the planned rotation failed.

The Bulgarian parliament will vote on Tuesday in a formal procedure, declaring her prime ministerial mandate a failure. After that, President Rumen Radev, known for opposing military aid to Ukraine, will hand over a mandate to form a government to PP-DB, the second-largest parliamentary formation.

However, the chances of the second attempt to form a government are also likely to fail, as GERB has announced that it will only resume political negotiations after the new parliamentary elections. The other parliamentary formations can only form a government with the support of GERB and PP-DB in the third and last attempt.

If that attempt fails, the new constitutional procedure mandates Radev to choose a caretaker prime minister from a list of 10 people with top positions in state administration. These include the National Assembly’s Speaker, the governor or deputy governors of the Bulgarian National Bank, the chairman of the Audit Chamber and their two deputies, the national ombudsman, and their deputy.

This procedure for appointing the caretaker prime minister has not yet been tested and carries the risk of turning the current political crisis in Sofia into a constitutional one if any of the 10 refuse to accept the nomination.

The Bulgarian constitution was amended in 2023 to remove the president’s excessive power in appointing caretaker governments in the country, as the experience of the 2021-2022 political crisis showed.

On Sunday evening, outgoing Prime Minister Nikolai Denkov (PP-DB) called GERB leader Boyko Borissov to sign an agreement with PP-DB to avoid a political crisis. GERB responded that negotiations would only be possible after early elections, which may coincide with the European elections on 9 June.

The political crisis in Sofia threatens Bulgaria’s ambitions to join the Eurozone, acquire full Schengen membership, and continue sending military aid to Ukraine—including, for instance, the proposal sent to parliament to provide Ukraine with a military aid package worth nearly $150 million, including heavy military equipment, Euractiv reports.

(Krassen Nikolov | Euractiv.bg)