Viktor Orban’s control over state institutions and the media is such that opposition parties in Hungary should give up the illusion that elections can unseat him, writes Kornel Klopfstein-Laszlo.
Kornel Klopfstein-Laszlo is an officer with the Open Society Foundation.
No, I am not arguing here for a violent insurrection against the Hungarian strongman, but there is a growing consensus among observers that voting him out has become nearly impossible. Viktor Orban’s fourth victory is a cautionary tale for all of us and an opportunity to explore extra-parliamentary politics.
Hungary’s pro-Putin prime minister declared another landslide victory earlier this month, claiming a mandate for his fourth consecutive term. With nearly all ballots counted, Viktor Orban and his ruling Fidesz party are on course to further increase their majority, defeating six opposition parties united to unseat him.
In just a few hours after Orban’s victory speech, observers worldwide were ready to explain the results by the war in Ukraine, a weak opposition, the government’s family policy, recent price caps, and even the Hungarian public’s appetite for an authoritarian leader.
While each of these explanations has some merit, experts have a growing consensus that it is time to stop pretending that Viktor Orban can be defeated in parliamentary elections.
In addition to his near-total control over the media, the overlap between state and ruling party resources, and questionable campaign finance regulations, changing electoral rules has become the government’s modus operandi. The moment a political opponent comes close to threatening Fidesz’s majority, Orban is quick to amend the laws, just as he has done hundreds of times over the last few years.
Viktor Orban’s fourth consecutive victory is a cautionary tale for all of us.
Because let’s face it: this is how liberal democracies die these days. Not by shocking measures, such as banning national elections, imprisoning the opposition, or building up a police state. They die by way of a gradual undermining of democratic institutions. Any regime that holds elections but at the same time systematically violates democratic norms should not be classified as democratic. The time has come to take their authoritarian nature seriously and find the appropriate democratic responses.
Before all else, opposition parties in Hungary should give up the illusion that elections can unseat Viktor Orban. In practice, this should include boycotting the parliament and skipping participation in the legislative sessions or establishing a parallel opposition government following the recent Myanmar example. Extra-parliamentary politics can offer exciting opportunities for the opposition to rebuild itself.
Besides party politics, new and innovative steps should be taken to restore media pluralism in rural areas across the country. One of these could include restarting the daily shortwave transmissions of the BBC World Service or Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty. Voter education efforts should be supported by civil society organisations, grassroots movements, and trade unions, making sure that all Hungarians’ fundamental rights and freedoms are being respected.
Finally, the international community should also put unprecedented pressure on Viktor Orban’s government. Without a doubt, the European Union has a significant role here, and they might be on the right track already. Last week, the European Commission announced that it would launch proceedings to suspend support payments to Hungary for breaching rule-of-law standards.
Even if all these different actors would manage to succeed, the chance that Viktor Orban would step aside is painfully slim. Internal conflicts within his party seem even less likely of a scenario. But for those who prefer to stay optimistic, let me conclude with the prime minister’s favourite Winston Churchill quote.
Success is not final; failure is not fatal: it is the courage to continue that counts.
Source: euractiv.com
