Left-wing populism could upset next year’s Austrian elections, says analyst

Left-wing populism could emerge as a potential game changer in next year’s federal election, political analyst Thomas Hofer told EURACTIV, referring to the Communist Party’s success in the Salzburg state elections this weekend.

On Sunday, the Austrian communist party KPÖ staged a major comeback in Salzburg’s state elections, coming in fourth place with 11.7%, securing its return to the state parliament for the first time since 1949.

The party “perfectly exploited the current mood”, the Austrian political analyst, Thomas Hofer, said about KPÖ’s triumph. Particularly since the established centre-left SPÖ party recently announced a leadership race, KPÖ had space to score big at the federal level.

“But the combination of a left-wing populist approach to issues and a communicatively talented leader at the top is the real recipe for success,” Hofer told EURACTIV on Monday.

He also referred to KPÖ’s successes in Styria, where it has been in parliament for 18 years and carried out “very professional issue management over many years, especially in the area of housing”. KPÖ member Elke Kahr has also been the mayor of Austria’s second-largest city Graz since November 2021.

Growing anti-establishment sentiment and growing economic pressure among a growing number of households in Austria would have also boosted the Communists’ chances, Hofer stressed.

Chances in the 2024 elections?

Given the federal elections of autumn next year, Hofer sees “sufficient left-wing populist potential” to make it into parliament.

“One must certainly expect that there will now be increased considerations in the direction of a left party,” he said, believing this could lead to a more fragmented parliament, making it even more challenging to form a government.

This weekend’s elections also had another big winner: the far-right FPÖ, which made significant gains and ended up in second place after the ÖVP with 25.7%.

Indeed, if elections were held today, current polls point to an FPÖ lead.

According to Hofer, the far-right party has managed to revive “its brand essence” and has set what Hofer called a “freedom frame” against “its perceived oppression on all issues” – including “migration pressure, ‘corona dictatorship’ or climate oppression.”

This would have made people forget about scandals like the Ibiza-gate affair in 2019, ultimately leading to the coalition’s break-up with the conservative ÖVP.

(Chiara Swaton | EURACTIV.de)