Though negotiations continue on a potential alliance between France’s leftist parties ahead of June’s legislative elections, the prospect of a left-wing majority in the new parliament remains remote, both according to experts and the leaders of the left.
On Thursday morning (28 April), communist leader Fabien Roussel conceded that negotiations between the left-wing parties are “stalling”, though he added that a union for the French left “is always within reach”.
Following the re-election of Emmanuel Macron as president last Sunday, it is clear that his centrist La République En Marche will face a stiff challenge in the parliamentary election on 12 and 19 June from the left, but also from the right, whose chief leader, the far-right Marine Le Pen, lost to Macron in the presidential run-off.
No union of the left, but a “new popular union”
Radical left-wing La France Insoumise (France Unbowed) has recognised that its rival leftist formations reject the idea of a simple alliance around its party leader Jean-Luc Mélenchon, who came in a close third in the presidential election.
Mélenchon has changed tack and now wishes to create “a federation or a confederation” of left-wing parties, which states “that each one has a parliamentary group, and at the same time an intergroup”, according to reports in the far-left newspaper l’Humanité on Thursday.
Mathilde Panot, an MP and central figure of Mélenchon’s party, also wanted to reassure potential partners that an alliance would be a “new People’s Union”, with the objective of “governing together to overthrow the presidential monarchy in which we live”.
Mélenchon has publicly staked his claim to become the next prime minister, and the will to have him at the helm of the new government remains strong on the Left, but as part of a negotiated government programme.
An unlikely majority
Nevertheless, even if the existing blockages were to be overcome and an agreement reached – which would be unprecedented – these plans could clash with the reality of the upcoming election.
“To imagine that the left alone could have an absolute majority, seems to me very unlikely,” said Mathieu Gallard, research director at the Ipsos polling institute, even in a scenario in which “an anti-Macron front takes shape” and right-wing voters “vote for the left to block LREM [Macron’s party],” he told EURACTIV France.
What works against the candidates on the right and left is the “tripartition of the political space”.
With three strong blocs, one on the left, one on the far-right, and another in the centre of the political spectrum, “this tends to favour” the more moderate or centre-leaning candidates over their second-round opponent, Gallard concluded.
Even the left does not believe in it
The political forces around the negotiating table – the Greens, the socialists, the communists and tLFI – seem to be aware of this. On Wednesday (27 April), Green leader Julien Bayou revealed a document that serves as a basis for negotiations with LFI ahead of the legislative elections.
Far from gathering the 289 representatives needed to have an absolute majority, this document was based on 165 constituencies considered most “winnable”. At best, the left can hope to play a decisive role in forming a new parliamentary majority.
Even if the left were to win in all these constituencies, the overwhelming majority of them would be won by Mélenchon’s radical left.
French Left split over union centred around Mélenchon
Negotiations over uniting the French left ahead of the legislative elections in June are underway but senior officials of the parties involved are split over calls to rally behind radical-left leader Jean-Luc Mélenchon. EURACTIV France reports.
[Edited by Benjamin Fox]
Source: euractiv.com
