The incumbent right-of-centre government in Slovakia has been an important ally for Ukraine during Russia’s invasion of the country, recently delivering fighter jets to Ukraine. However, this may change after the September national parliament elections.
The party of centre-right incumbent Prime Minister and European Council member Eduard Heger, Demokrati (EPP), is only polling about 4.9%, according to the Europe Elects polling average. Heger had left OĽaNO and joined Demokrati just after its recreation from the ashes of the Spolu party at the beginning of March.
The other coalition partners aren’t faring much better: the right-wing Sme Rodina is polling at 7.7% (2020: 8.2%), the centre-right OĽaNO (EPP) party is polling at 5% (2020: 25.0%), and the centre-right Za ľudí (EPP) party is polling at 2.2% (2020: 5.8%). The threshold to enter parliament in Slovakia is 5% for single-party, 7% for two-or-three-parties lists, and 10% for four-or-more-parties lists.
The Smer-SD party, formally affiliated with Europe’s social democrats but shares ideological similarities with Viktor Orbán’s Fidesz, is polling at 16.9% (2020: 18.3%), making it the strongest party in the country. Its more moderate split-off, Hlas, formed after the 2020 election, is polling at 15.9%.
The far-right REPUBLIKA party, formed after the last election, is polling at 7.6%, replacing the fascist ĽSNS party, which had won 8.0% in 2020. The national-conservative SNS party is polling at 3.6% (2020: 3.3%). Smer-SD, Hlas, REPUBLIKA, and SNS had all supported a snap election referendum earlier this year to bring down the incumbent government.
The liberal opposition is led by the Progressive Slovakia party, which failed to win parliamentary representation in 2020, but could now win 12.6%. The Christian Democrats could also re-gain parliamentary representation, currently polling at 6.2%.
With these figures, Smer-SD, Hlas, and REPUBLIKA would win a one-seat majority of 76 out of 150 seats in the national parliament.
Source: euractiv.com
