Hungary’s ties to Russia make Europeans ‘increasingly uncomfortable’

Over the past two years, Budapest’s ties with Russia have become the ‘elephant in the room’.

As European leaders brace for their biggest fight with Budapest so far over a four-year €50 billion financial aid package for Ukraine, many EU diplomats believe it will be a pivotal moment.

Over the past two years, Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has held up Ukraine’s membership negotiations with the EU, slow-walked Western sanctions, obstructed financial and military aid deals, impeded Sweden’s path into NATO, and cast doubt on Ukraine’s ability to defeat Russia.

When he left the room in December to allow a deal on Ukraine accession talks, there was a collective sigh of relief.

Over the past weeks, the EU has become determined to sign off on the critical deal, with or without Budapest, and has been intensely negotiating with Hungarian officials in the run-up to Thursday’s summit.

Should unanimity prove impossible, as a last resort the EU26 leaders are increasingly willing to work around Hungary and agree to the funding outside formal EU structures.

Independent of the summit outcome, this would leave Orbán increasingly isolated.

‘Elephant in the room’

For three terms, the Hungarian prime minister has fought with Brussels and moved gradually closer to Moscow’s positions. Then came Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, where Budapest has become the weakest link in the West’s response.

Some EU member states are also becoming increasingly uncomfortable with Hungary being present in certain formats, several EU diplomats told Euractiv.

“More and more member states get uncomfortable discussing security and other important issues in the EU or NATO meetings,” a senior EU diplomat told Euractiv.

“Hungary’s posture and open alignment with Russia, China, Iran and North Korea on many essential topics is like an ‘elephant in the room’,” they said.

This would go as far as Russia-wary European countries increasingly cautious to talk tactics in a bigger meeting room, according to several diplomats, who spoke to Euractiv on the condition of anonimity.

The mood changed especially after Orbán’s handshake meeting with Putin in front of the cameras, where the former told the latter that “Hungary has never sought to confront Russia. Rather, the opposite is true: Hungary has always pursued the goal of building and expanding the best communication.”

“It was not only perceived as undermining the bloc’s unified support to Ukraine, but something clicked in many European diplomats’ minds that this threatens the European consensus – you couldn’t get rid of the image from your head in any meeting after,” a second EU diplomat said.

Beyond the EU, this became evident when Orbán snubbed last year’s meeting in Warsaw with US President Joe Biden and the other Bucharest Nine leaders – that make up NATO’s eastern flank – after insisting former US President Donald Trump was the only person who could broker peace with Russia’s President Vladimir Putin.

“It was interesting to see how the atmosphere in the room changed, with him being replaced by the president of the country,” a third European diplomat involved in the meeting told Euractiv.

“It corresponded with the fact that in lower levels of the [B9] format, certain things have not been as openly discussed anymore, and some members have started looking for options to discuss issues more privately, in alternative formats,” they added.

Authoritarian romances

“Orbán as an authoritarian guy is constantly under criticism from Brussels; he needs a counterweight,” Boris Bondarev, Russian diplomat and former member of Russia’s delegation to the United Nations in Geneva, who defected after the full-scale invasion of Ukraine told Euractiv.

“Putin is just such an ideal counterweight, who himself is interested in Orbán as a European ally, and at the same time is not in a position to mess up Budapest’s life too much,” Bondarev said.

Bondarev said he believes that within the framework of existing relations, the Kremlin could theoretically ask Budapest to play along, to stall for time.

“Why not, you can always ask,” Bondarev said.

While Orbán always agrees with the EU and NATO in the end, they are trying to capitalise, at least in terms of propaganda.

“Orbán doesn’t want trouble from Washington and Brussels, so he doesn’t cross the line,” a retired Russian diplomat told Euractiv, agreeing to speak only on condition of anonymity because the Russian Foreign Ministry has advised against commenting to foreign media.

“However, what he is doing is quite in line with Russian interests, certainly the interests of Russian propaganda: Look, they don’t have unity there, they have disagreements, and even in Europe, there are sensible people, and there will be more and more of them, and all in this vein, which is what they say from our TV screens,” they added.

“At the same time, Hungary wants to extract concessions from NATO”, a former EU official said.

“But Orban not doing it for Moscow is very much exaggerated. If what Orbán is doing for Moscow suits Moscow, it does not mean he is doing it for Moscow,” they added.

“He’s eager to show to Moscow and Beijing that he’s still capable of providing some sort of service to them – that he’s able to roadblock and deadlock the EU sometimes, if he wants, that he can exert pressure and stop processes,” Rudolf Berkes, policy analyst for Political Capital think thank in Budapest told Euractiv.

“This is one of the most important aspects of Hungary in front of China and Russia – because, let’s be honest, Hungary does not have many resources or a huge economy or a highly skilled workforce, the only valuable aspect of Hungary to offer at least from a design perspective is its ability to do stuff and influence policies inside the EU and NATO,” Berkes added.

Russia sanctions vs energy dependency

With deep economic ties with Moscow, notably in the energy sector, sanctions have been the sore point between Budapest and Brussels when negotiating the various rounds of sanctions the EU has implemented against Russia since Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

Until then, Hungary was and remains one of Russia’s leading energy trade partners in Europe, including gas and oil, and the construction of new nuclear power plants with help from Moscow’s state-owned nuclear energy company, Rosatom.

None of the EU’s latest sanctions package against Russia has so far been able to include restrictions on nuclear power, mostly due to Hungary’s opposition.

Orbán has said he would veto any such sanctions against the Russian nuclear sector because his country relies on Russian nuclear fuel.

With EU member states currently negotiating a thirteenth round of sanctions, Budapest has once again warned that they considered the energy sector a red line.

“Hungary will not support such sanctions” if nuclear energy is included, Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó said last week.

“Budapest does not think that Europe will help them if necessary. So they will fight for Russian oil and gas to the last possible moment – that’s dependency, it is not a service,” a former EU official from Central Europe said.

It’s more mutually beneficial cooperation rather than Budapest’s dependence on Moscow, Sergei Vakulenko, a Russian independent energy analyst based in Bonn and a nonresident scholar at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, told Euractiv.

“Dependent” is not a correct term, it is more about [Budapest] benefiting from Moscow. Putin has no stick on Hungary but a carrot,” Vakulenko said.

And that would probably still be the case even if Orbán did not engage in pro-Russian activism it could be like Austria, for example. Austria is not particularly in favour of Russia, rather, it is simply benevolent, but it has its advantages in the form of gas and Raiffeisen [Bank], too,” Vakulenko said.

Energy is indeed a special interest for Budapest, it is an important pillar in the relationship, the Russian diplomat quoted above said.

“But energy is not the only factor that determines this relationship, because Hungary is not the only country with significant interests in Russian supplies. But where others were silent, it was Hungary that took a special position,” the Russian diplomat added.

Budapest without doubt “uses the Russian card in its negotiations with Brussels,” the Russian diplomat said.

[Edited by Alice Taylor]

Moscow Times’ Petr Kozlov is hosted at Euractiv under the EU-funded EU4FreeMedia residency program.