‘Grand Coalition’ to isolate Portugal’s far right?

Portugal’s Socialists continue to lose ground ahead of national elections on 10 March, with the centre-right opposition leading the polls but needing the strengthened far-right to govern, according to Euractiv’s November projections following a high-level corruption probe.

The corruption probe that led to the resignation of the now former prime minister Antonio Costa has exacerbated the Socialists’ (PS/S&D) free fall since the 2022 national elections – when they scored 41.2% – with a drop from 29% in October to 25.1% after the scandal broke in November.

Opposition centre-right PSD leads the polls with 27%, gaining 1% since the scandal. However, it would need all right-wing forces, including the far-right, to have a majority.

Far-right Chega, deemed a ‘hate’ organisation by a leading NGO, wins the most from the socialists’ demise, with an increase from 13.7% in October to 17.1% in November’s projections.

Centre-right PSD leader Luís Montenegro said on 12 November he would not form a coalition with Chega and would only govern if he won the legislative elections.

“I’m coming to win the elections and to govern the country, and I’ve already said that I’ll only govern if I win the elections,” Montenegro told reporters.

However, the PSD entered into a regional parliamentary alliance with Chega in 2020 following regional elections in the Azores. The alliance collapsed shortly afterwards amid disagreements over the regional budget.

Coalitions depend on socialists’ top job

Costa’s resignation left the socialists’ secretary-general job up for grabs, and possible coalitions will depend on who steps in.

A moderate candidate, Interior Minister Jose Luis Carneiro was the first to formally announce he was running on 11 November.

Recently announcing he would support a minority government by the opposition PSD to leave Chega out of government, Carneiro’s leadership could lead to a grand coalition, “Bloco Central”, between the socialists (PS) and the centre-right (PSD), Europe Elects’ Julien Mathias suggests.

Another candidate, considered frontrunner, is former infrastructure Minister Pedro Nuno Santos, who stems from the leftist faction of the party and was a big proponent and supporter of the “Geringonça” solution in 2015 – a PS government with individual agreements with left-wing party BE, the Green party (PEV), and the communist party (PCP).

This time, however, a left-wing majority seems unlikely, but the campaign is yet to be started.

Left-wing BE currently scores 9.4% of votes, while leftist CDU scores 3.5%. Green parties PAN and Livre are at 2.9% and 3.2% respectively.

(Max Griera | Euractiv.com and Europe Elects)