German conservative leader confident about future coalition possibilities

The leader of Germany’s conservative Christian Democrats, Friedrich Merz, is convinced his party will lead the next federal government, he said in his weekly newsletter on Saturday, outlining potential coalition partners.

As chairman of the CDU (EPP), currently the country’s main opposition party, Merz is confident that his party will govern after the next national elections.

It is “largely undisputed in public opinion […] that the CDU/CSU will lead the next federal government,” Merz wrote in his weekly newsletter.

For some time now, the CDU has been comfortably ahead of other parties in the polls, with around 32% of voter intentions – while the ruling parties of SPD (S&D), Greens, and FDP (Renew) have lost significant support since coming to power.

In order to achieve a policy change in Germany, Merz has set himself the goal of being at least twice as strong as the SPD and the Greens. Although the next national election is not due until late 2025, Merz has admitted that a coalition government is likely.

While his preferred choice would be the liberal FDP, “it is questionable whether they will survive as a party,” Merz said. A subsequent coalition with the SPD or the Greens would not be “a particularly appealing prospect, but a governing majority is a must,” Merz wrote.

While he did not rule out any of the current governing parties as potential partners, he said, “it certainly won’t be the AfD.” “As a radical right-wing party, it is outside any conceivable spectrum for us,” Merz added.

The opposition leader warned the public that “every vote in favour of one of these parties [AfD or The Left] makes real political change in Germany more difficult, not easier”.

Similar questions may have to be answered in the European elections in June.

With polls pointing to a right-wing blocking majority, CDU’s EU group, the European People’s Party (EPP), is projected to win a similar number of EU seats as in 2019, while both the national-conservative ECR and the far-right ID are expected to make significant gains, according to the latest Europe Elects polls.

However, with Merz rejecting any form of coalition with the AfD, it is unlikely that the right-wing will look towards a tight relationship with the ID, especially as the AfD remains a key member of the far-right ID group.

This was also confirmed in a recent Euractiv interview with ID Vice-President Gunnar Beck.

While the difference between some ID and EPP delegations might not be great, “closer cooperation with the EPP is particularly difficult due to the situation in Germany,” Beck said.

(Kjeld Neubert | Euractiv.de)