Newly-appointed French Prime Minister Michel Barnier presented his government late on Saturday (21 September), largely maintaining the political course of previous pro-Macron administrations while making concessions to the far-right Rassemblement National (RN).
The announcement ends a 67-day wait for a new government – the longest in modern French political history – and suggests evident policy continuity rather than the shift many had hoped for after this summer’s snap legislative elections.
The final list of ministers, said to be finalised last Thursday (19 September), was still being fine-tuned until earlier on Saturday, with centrist forces concerned the new government was leaning too far to the right, bowing to the RN.
Ultimately, most top ministerial posts have remained within President Macron’s Ensemble pour la République (EPR), even though the party came third in the polls, behind the left-wing union and the far-right RN.
Long-serving Defence Minister Sébastien Lecornu will remain in his role, while former EU Affairs Minister Jean-Noël Barrot will take over foreign affairs.
Agnès Pannier-Runacher, a pro-nuclear voice in Brussels when she was French energy minister, will return with a large portfiolio that includes green transition, energy, climate and risk mitigation.
Some of Macron’s closest allies, Antoine Armand and Laurent Saint-Martin, are entering government as economic and budget ministers, respectively – taking over Bruno Le Maire, who announced last week he was off to greener pastures.
Meanwhile, Michel Barnier’s own conservative Les Républicains (LR) party, which only came fifth in the elections with 47 MEPs (down from 112 in 2017), secured the strategic home affairs portfolio.
Bruno Retailleau, a long-time LR senator with very hard views on immigration, will be in charge of the police and immigration. His appointment is seen as a bid to assuage some of the far right’s concerns and secure their tacit support.
Other LR leaders – some of whom have made themselves known with very conservative stances on immigration and family values – will be filling more junior roles, including in areas like citizenship, trade and overseas territories, among others.
Until the final hours, the new government’s composition remained a blur. Macron’s allies threatened to pull out if Barnier chose to increase taxes – a move he aired as a possibility to offset ever-widening deficits – or gave too much rope to LR leadership.
Instead, the new government looks more or less the same and signals that Macron’s key reforms – to say nothing of his 2023 pensions bill – will stay put.
Monsieur, Herr, Mister ? Michel Barnier seen from abroad
The election of former European Commissioner and Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier has caused a stir in France, but has been met with more measured reactions abroad, where he is no stranger – even if this means overlooking his more recent Eurosceptic stances.
Budget crisis
Only two weeks in the job, Barnier knows he is walking a tightrope with the looming threat of a no-confidence vote when MPs return to work on 1 October.
Should the no-confidence vote happen, he would become the shortest-serving PM since the new 1958 Constitution was introduced.
He has had to tap deep into his Brexit negotiation skills to meet political parties halfway and secure their backing while setting his hand to urgent reforms. Chiefly among these is the 2025 budget bill.
Deficit levels have surged and are expected to surpass 5.6% of GDP by the end of the year – a far cry from the 4.9% commitment Paris made to the European Commission for 2024, with a target to reduce it below the 3% threshold by 2027.
Forecasts now predict deficits could reach 6.2% in 2025. Immediate actions will be required to calm the European Commission’s worst fears and signal a political willingness to regain control over public spending.
How to get there, however, is a different story.
Conservatives and EPR troops have expressed a clear refusal to offset some of the deficit with tax hikes on the middle class, threatening to withdraw support if such measures are introduced. This has made political observers worry that a coalition government was on the brink of failure, with rumours even suggesting that Barnier could walk away half way through the week.
The budget bill, legally required to be submitted to parliament by 1 October, is already anticipated to be delayed – another first in French history.
As pressure mounts, other potential yet unexplored options on the table to increase revenues, including a tax on the wealthy and multinationals, as part of the prime minister’s promise to bring about “more fiscal justice.”
Prime Minister Michel Barnier faces daunting budget test
French Prime Minister Michel Barnier, appointed on Thursday (5 September) by President Macron, is in a race against the clock to finalise the 2025 budget by 1 October.
RN: Too close for comfort
Barnier’s new government faces more than just money talk.
He is well aware that his survival depends on the far-right RN’s decision to abstain from the expected no-confidence vote on 1 October.
If the left-wing union as a whole votes against the government – as it plans on doing – the RN ultimately will hold the kingmaker position in parliamentary arithmetic.
Marine Le Pen, who initially offered Barnier a chance to govern, made it clear her support comes with conditions.
“We will not take away the possibility to vote in favour of a vote of no-confidence if we deem the French people’s superior interests are being violated,” she told the daily Le Parisien on Thursday (19 September).
In appointing someone like Bruno Retailleau to secure RN’s tacit support, Barnier has chosen to give the far-right a bone to chew on by ramping up a tough-on immigration policy stance.
The fact the prime minister is no stranger to repressive immigration talk may also help.
In 2021, he advocated for a moratorium on immigration and a constitutional change that would give France discretion over EU immigration law application.
Retailleau could indeed help to give birth to some of these ideas. This possibility had caused panic among EPR MPs, with some even suggesting last week they could leave the pro-Macron parliamentary group at once.
Laurent Geslin contributed to the reporting.
[Edited by Martina Monti]
Source: euractiv.com