On 2 April, Finland will elect a new parliament, which will determine the fate of European Council member and centre-left Prime Minister Sanna Marin. Current polls suggest that Marin’s government coalition of the Social Democratic party, the Centre party, the Greens, the Left, and the liberal Swedish People’s party will defend its majority. However, the centre-right KOK party is polling as the strongest party.
Our take:
The current five-party government is unlikely to continue after the April elections. There is too much distrust, especially between the Greens and the Centre, which has seen its support nosediving. Consequently, Marin would lose her position.
The most likely winner of the election would be the liberal-conservative National Coalition Party (NCP). The government would be a blue-and-red coalition of the NCP and the social democrats together with the Greens and the Swedish People’s party. Together they would hold a comfortable majority of around 117-120 seats in the 200-seat parliament, and the Chair of the National Coalition Party Petteri Orpo, is a likely candidate for the prime ministerial post.
If the nationalist Finns Party, currently third in the polls, can overcome the social democrats, the outcome could be a right-wing government with the social democrats in opposition.
The issue of high levels of public debt is one to watch. The Finance Ministry has estimated that the annual budgetary position should be improved by at least €9 billion over the next two parliamentary terms. Note this estimate does not include the cost of expensive support measures that the government is currently preparing to help households struggling with high energy bills. That will mean both cuts and raised taxes – both measures being politically difficult.
There is a lot at stake in these elections. If the National Coalition wins the election, as it looks at the moment, the next government could be more openly pro-nuclear and facilitate new investments, especially emerging technologies.
One thing is sure: Finland will be against new joint EU debt, no matter which parties sit in the government.
Source: euractiv.com
