EU ‘little Trumps’ hail Wilder’s victory but government still tough equation

EU ‘little Trumps’ hail Wilder’s victory but government still tough equation | INFBusiness.com

While the victory of the Dutch far-right PVV party whets EU nationalists’ appetite for seeing a return to “national identities”, the possibility of Geert Wilders leading the country – or even entering government – remains complex.

The Dutch parliamentary election on Wednesday resulted in a massive win for far-right PVV, getting 37 seats out of 150, followed by former EU Commissioner Frans Timmermans’ socialist and green party coalition (PvdA/GL), who got 25 seats.

Wilders said PVV can “no longer be ignored, ” affirming “we are going to govern”.

“Such a mega victory must be respected. This is what the voters say, they want it different. It would be very undemocratic if the voters were left out,” he said.

On the other side of the spectrum, Timmermans recognised he was “disappointed” by the results and that he “was hoping for more” while accepting he “was not able to convince enough people”.

He called for a “left-wing fist” to defend democracy and the rule of law, harshly criticising PVV’s anti-migration discourse.

“It doesn’t matter to us where your cradle was,” Timmermans shouted, “you are welcome in the Netherlands if you flee from war and violence, that will never change for us.”

What now?

Looking at the results, two options lie ahead: Either liberal VVD, centre-right NSC and far-right PVV form a right-wing coalition – perhaps with the support of smaller parties like farmers’ BBB -or Timmermans’ PvdA/GL bloc tries to govern with NSC and VVD, alongside liberal D66.

Within a week, a parliamentary debate with the new seat allocation will be held to discuss the election results, where all parties will appoint a mediator to explore viable coalitions.

Afterwards, the mediator will recommend a coalition, and the house will pick and appoint one of the party leaders to be the new prime minister, which will then have to form a coalition. The process can last months.

While everything is on the air and no door is closed, in both cases, all parties’ opposing views on key topics mean tough coalition talks – and tough governing after that.

While VVD has shown openness to collaborate with the far-right, the party leader, Dilan Yeşilgöz, said on Tuesday she would not support Wilders as Prime Minister because of his extreme views.

“I don’t see Wilders becoming prime minister because I don’t see him being able to form a majority. Now it’s his turn to show if he can do that,” Yeşilgöz said on election night.

NSC’s leader, Peter Otmzigt, repeatedly stated during the campaign that his party would not collaborate with PVV due to the party’s anti-Islam and anti-migrant stance, which is against the Dutch constitution. However, nothing has been ruled out.

Omtzigt says he wants to be in the new cabinet but acknowledges that this will be “not easy”. “The Netherlands will have to be governed, and we are available for that,” he said.

On top of VVD and NSC leaving the door open for negotiation, Wilders has said he is willing to make concessions on the most controversial of his policy proposals.

“I understand very well that parties do not want to be in a government with a party that wants unconstitutional measures. We are not going to talk about mosques, Qurans and Islamic schools,” Wilders said.

Despite PVV’s controversial anti-EU, anti-Islam, and scepticism about climate change, entering government in coalition with NSC and VVD would likely tone down their discourse.

For example, even with PVV’s anti-EU stance, a right-wing coalition would likely continue to support a united front in the bloc’s external dimension, including global trade, defence cooperation, and strategic autonomy, as defended by VVD and NSC in their electoral programmes.

As for a potential centre coalition, Timmermans’ PvdA/G and VVD have been historically rivals, as VVD is leaning towards the eurosceptic and fiscally conservative end of the European liberal party family. Additionally, the green-socialist alliance was formed to kick VVD out of government.

Euractiv’s partner, Europe Elects, suggests that snap elections are a “realistic scenario” given the harsh political landscape.

EU far-right wakes up

Meanwhile, Wilder’s victory revived far-right rhetoric across the bloc, particularly from the so-called ‘Little Trumps’.

Leaders of Europe’s far right parties who have expressed openly their support to former US President Donald Trump are now celebrating Wilder’s victory ahead of the June EU elections.

Most of them are considered Trump’s allies in Europe and Trump’s potential return to power in Washington is expected to shake EU politics.

“Everywhere in Europe, citizens want political change!” commented X, the German far-right AfP party.

“The winds of change are here! Congratulations to Geert Wilders on winning the Dutch elections”, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán rushed to comment immediately after the exit polls became public.

Spain’s Vox (ECR) leader, Santiago Abascal, also congratulated Wilders and celebrated that “more and more Europeans are demanding on the streets and at the ballot box that their nations, their borders and their rights be defended.”

Conservative Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, struggling to keep her distance from the far-right, has not reacted yet to the news.

But her coalition partner Lega’s (ID) Matteo Salvini caused her headaches as he congratulated Wilders, describing him as a “historical ally of Lega”.

“A new Europe is possible,” he said on X.

In Paris, far-right leader Marine Le Pen from Rassemblement National (ID) said on X: “Congratulations to Geert Wilders and the PVV for their spectacular performance in the legislative elections, which confirms the growing support for the defence of national identities.”

(Max Griera | Euractiv.com – Edited by Sarantis Michalopoulos)

*Tobias Gerhard Schminke from Europe Elects contributed to the reporting.

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