EU elections campaign: Which parties have their act together?

Dear readers,

Welcome to EU Politics Decoded. I am Max Griera, and this week I’ll be temporarily taking over the newsletter reins from Eleonora Vasques to shine some light on the European parties’ pre-electioneering process.

The Pandora’s box of the EU elections is already wide open and raging and, with less than six months to go before a key vote that will see the continent make an unprecedented lurch to the far-right, EU political forces are well underway in their preparations.

So, what are Europe’s political families planning for the campaign? Let’s delve right in.

SOCIALISTS/PES: We broke the news on Monday evening that EU Commissioner for Jobs and Social Rights Nicolas Schmit would likely become the EU socialists’ lead candidate, as he gathered the support of national socialist parties of Germany, Spain, and Luxembourg.

The Party of European Socialists (PES) confirmed on Thursday afternoon that Schmit is standing to be a candidate.

The next step is the party’s electoral congress in Rome on 2 March, where representatives from national parties will adopt a common electoral manifesto and formally elect Schmit, as nobody else has signed up for the job.

Our latest projections reveal the socialists would score 18.3% of the popular vote and 143 seats, staying the European Parliament’s second biggest group.

CENTRE-RIGHT/EPP: On Thursday we were first to publish an analysis of the European People’s Party (EPP) draft manifesto, which points to the centre-right family’s attempt to fish far-right voters. The manifesto stresses the party’s goal to slash “EU bureaucracy” and red tape across policy areas, especially in agriculture, tech, and social policy. At the same time, the draft mentions the need to call for a European convention to review which competencies “should be possibly transferred back [to member states]”.

The party has eliminated any mention of migrants’ social inclusion – which was included in the 2019 manifesto – instead strengthening its commitment to externalising asylum centres and increasing returns to third countries.

To bolster the EU’s borders and prevent ‘illegal migrants’ from reaching member states, the EPP proposes to give Frontex up to 30,000 employees – up from the current 2,000.

Currently under negotiations with party members, the manifesto will likely be approved at the EPP’s political assembly on 29-30 January before the electoral congress in Bucharest on 6-7 March.

As for the leading candidate, the most likely option is current Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, who is widely assumed to want a second term – but nothing is set.

Potential candidates have from 5 January to 21 February to put forward their nomination. They need the support of their national party and two others to do so. The lead candidate will be ultimately elected in March’s congress.

The EPP is expected to be the Parliament’s biggest political force, taking 23.5% of votes and 178 seats.

LIBERALS: The different liberal factions at the EU level will run a joint election campaign via the Renew Europe group in the European Parliament. The ALDE party, the European Democratic Party (EDP), and Macron’s party Renaissance will run together on “a common platform” with common political lines for the campaign.

The liberals will likely run with three lead candidates, one from EDP, one from ALDE, and one from Macron’s party Renaissance – a “Team Europe”, as Euractiv was told. However, a final decision still needs to be made.

Before though, the liberals need first to clean house and pick a new president of Renew. Stéphane Séjourné’s departure as Renew Europe’s president – picked by French President Emmanuel Macron as his new foreign minister – has unlatched an electoral battleground among the liberal factions, with ALDE’s candidate and current interim President, Malik Azmani, facing off with Macron’s pick, Valérie Hayer, for the group’s presidency – with rumours that Hayer is well ahead.

The election will take place on Thursday next week (25 January) at 8 am. Needless to say, we will keep you posted.

According to our projections, the liberals will face substantial losses and will score the fifth position when it comes to popular vote, at 10.3%, and the fourth position in seats at 84 – a 24-seat loss compared to 2019.

GREENS-EGP: The European Green Party (EGP) is the most democratically rigorous of all when it comes to the election of its lead candidate. While the socialists have skipped all internal electioneering and selected Schmit directly, and the centre-right is stuck in an awkward internal dilemma, the Greens undergoing a proper lead candidate race.

Two out of the four candidates represent the Greens’ attempt at finding new voters as they are – really – plummeting in polls: Italian Benedetta Scuderi could garner southern and the youth’s votes, as she is the spokesperson of the Young European Greens, while Latvian Elīna Pinto joins the race on behalf of the Progresīvie party, which recently joined the EGP in an attempt to increase the green presence in the north of Europe.

But let’s be honest: the clear frontrunner is Terry Reintke, the European Parliament’s German co-president, who is widely popular across national parties.

The next step for the Greens is their electoral congress on 2-4 February in Lyon, where national party representatives will elect the two lead candidates and approve the manifesto.

Polls show the greens are declining with 6.8% of the popular vote and 50 seats, 24 less than in 2019- becoming the sixth force in the European Parliament.

LEFT: The Party of the European Left is also well underway with their election planning. Unlike the Greens, though, the Left’s lead candidate appointment process is quite opaque.

National parties from inside and outside the parties were invited to start sending their nominees back in October and, after a decision of the EU party’s leadership, the lead candidate will be presented, alongside the manifesto, during an electoral General Assembly on the 24-25 February in Ljubljana, Slovenia.

What we know: Euractiv revealed in December that French MEP and The Left’s co-president in the European Parliament Manon Aubry, from La France Insoumise, has been blocked from the race to avoid infighting between several French radical left parties. The other co-president, Martin Schirdewan, is “an option”, the party president, Walter Baier, told us.

The Left is projected to be the eighth force in the European Parliament, with 5.9% of votes and 37 seats – losing four compared to 2019.

CONSERVATIVES AND REFORMISTS/ECR: While we should expect an electoral congress from ECR in the coming months, nothing is confirmed yet, but we should expect some sort of a common European campaign, always giving priority to national parties and narratives. Italian Prime Minister Georgia Meloni may play an important role during the campaign, as she represents ECR’s leading figure.

ECR is expected to be the fourth force in terms of popular vote with 10.9%, and the fifth in terms of seats, with 80.

FAR-RIGHT/ID: The biggest winner of the EU elections is projected to be the far-right Identity and Democracy party, gathering extremist and eurosceptic parties from across Europe, as they are projected to be the third biggest force in the European Parliament with 12.5% of the popular vote and 93 seats – a 20 seat increase compared to 2019. For now, nothing is known about ID’s strategy for the EU elections.

Who’s electioneering?

Finlands to elect its new president, with unpopular EU Commissioner on the ballot. Finland goes to vote for its new president on 28 January with seven candidates running, including EU Commissioner for International Partnerships Jutta Urpilainen, representing the socialist party, who is lagging behind contenders with only 7% of voting intention.

Ahead of the race is former prime minister, centre-right Alexander Stubb (Kok/EPP), at 27%, closely followed by former green Foreign Minister Pekka Haavisto (Greens/EFA) at 25%, according to Europe Elects polling averages for Euractiv.

Liechtenstein to decide on key green laws in referendum. Lichtenstein heads to the polls on Sunday (21 January) to vote on laws on the reform of the energy standards in the building sector and on obligations of photovoltaic panels on non-residential buildings.

Capitals-in-brief

Swedish climate minister wins no-confidence vote over conservative climate policy. The vote of no confidence against Climate and Environment Minister Romina Pourmokhtari on her climate policy failed as the opposition Social Democrats abstained, splitting the opposition.

Justice minister faces vote of no confidence following ‘scandalous’ building purchase. Slovenian Justice Minister Dominika Švarc Pipan faces a vote of no confidence following the disclosure of a botched purchase of a building in Ljubljana that was meant to house several lower-court departments.

Fico, Orbán pledge mutual support, criticise V4 inactivity. “We are destined for cooperation and, I believe, for success as well,” said Prime Minister Robert Fico following bilateral discussions – which included the topics of Ukraine, Israel, and Palestine – with his Hungarian counterpart, Viktor Orbán, in Budapest.

Macron says EU should accept ‘US first priority is itself, second is China.’ The EU should see the reality and step up geopolitically in a “dysfunctional” world to defend its sovereignty without being dependent on the US, especially under a Donald Trump presidency, Macron told journalists in a historic press conference in Paris on Tuesday.

France, Germany, Netherlands side with conservative EU countries in split over rape definition. Feminist NGOs have criticised France, Germany and the Netherlands for blocking the inclusion of consent-based definition of rape in the EU’s directive to combat violence against women as December’s negotiations on the law once again stalled.

The next week in politics

At the Council, Foreign Affairs Council on Monday (22 January); informal meeting of trade ministers on Monday and Tuesday (22-23 January); EU-Egypt association Council on Tuesday (23 January); Agriculture and Fisheries Council on Tuesday (23 January); and Informal meeting of justice and home affairs ministers on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday (24-26 January).

The European Parliament’s committees will meet next week: Economic and Monetary Affairs; Industry Research and Energy; Transport and Tourism; Civil Liberties; Foreign Affairs, Budgetary Control; Regional Development; Petitions; and Constitutional Affairs, among others.

[Edited by Nathalie Weatherald]