EU election flash poll: Conservative ECR on course to snatch liberal Renew’s fourth place

The national-conservative ECR group may overtake the liberal Renew Europe group as the fourth-largest political force in the European Parliament if the liberals’ downward trend persists, according to Europe Elects’ latest projection for Euractiv.

Over the last six months, Renew’s projected seat wins for June’s EU elections have decreased from 89 to 82, just two seats ahead of the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR), whose estimate is currently at 80. If liberals’ downward trend continues, it will see ECR become the fourth-largest political force in the European Parliament.

The poll update corroborates predictions that the right-wing is set to make notable gains when Europeans head to the polls.

Worth noting is the growing distance between the two biggest political groups, the socialists (S&D) and centre-right (EPP). The EPP has grown from 160 in August to currently 180, while S&D has lost six seats since August, to a total of 140 now. Compared to the current seat distribution, however, not much changes, as S&D holds 141 and EPP 179.

Compared to Euractiv’s projections on 15 January, far-right ID maintains its position as the third-largest force with 91 seats, though it loses two; The Left group rises from 37 to 42 seats; while the Greens/EFA score one extra seat to 51.

Key national party developments since 15 January

Germany: Leftist breakaway party, Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (The Left), enters projections with three seats.
Poland: PiS (ECR) loses two seats from 19 to 17.
Hungary: Fidesz (no affiliation), Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s party, earns two seats from 10 to 12; Demokratikus Koalíció (S&D), loses three seats from five to two.

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*Europe Elects is Euractiv’s polling provider, find their methodology here.

[Edited by Nathalie Weatherald]