Electoral rhetoric and reality of migration set to clash again in 2024

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Editor’s Take: Electoral rhetoric and reality of migration set to clash again in 2024

This year, the contradiction between electoral campaigns and the reality of migration will be increasingly evident.

In 2024, around four billion people across the globe will go to the polls, including for the EU elections in June. Migration is once again a lightning rod issue for politicians, who are well aware of the power of rhetoric on the topic. Votes can be gained or lost in just a few sentences, uttered in an electoral debate or press communication and then amplified by the media.

With aspiring representatives making plays for votes by drumming up fearful futures of the impacts of border crossings, other electoral factors – such as a candidate’s previous work record, or more technical policy expertise – fall by the wayside.

Much of migration and asylum policy will not directly affect the Europeans who themselves go to the polls.

The EU pact on Migration and Asylum, which EU institutions approved last December, will largely affect the work of border guards and the lives of migrants arriving at EU borders with irregular status.

The work on the Pact centred on ideas of hostility and safety. In the last decade, the association of a certain category of migrants with danger has permeated European society.

This narrative is the rallying cry of the far right – which is gaining ground across the continent – and is creeping ever more into the manifestos of more centrist parties.

The five regulations of the pact itself crystallise the notion that the ultimate task is to keep migrants away and leave full sovereignty of the borders to EU member states.

But this is a read that ignores the realities of migration. People worldwide have always been on the move, and better lives will be naturally sought in a world of increasing instability, regional conflict and the escalating effects of climate change and resource scarcity. Slamming down the hatches is not fixing the problem – just turning away.

At a conference in Greece this week, EU Migration Commissioner Ylva Johansson underlined the need for more legal migration to help address the shortages of workforce in Europe. One million migrants per year are needed to fill the gap, she said.

This rhetoric of “we need them now” is a tentative challenge to anti-immigration propaganda – but one that is struggling to take off due to its fundamental contradiction with the prevalent electoral imperative of the need to “keep them away”.

As the world heads to the polls, we will see the battle lines drawn and deepened between these two narratives – with a calm and sensitive assessment of the needs of both newcomers and their receiving countries increasingly politically out of reach.

Who is Electioneering

Taiwan’s fate will be decided by US elections, not the Taiwanese. Taiwan will go to vote on Saturday (13 January) in an election in which the situation between Taiwan and China is depicting as the most important in the international media landscape. However, most of voters will be likely affected by domestic internal politics.

Amongst the main candidates, the best way to keep the current state of play between Taiwan and mainland China is a key battleground.

Arguably as important as Taiwan’s own elections are those of the US later in the year. A second term for former president Donald Trump, who recently declared that he would not help Europe if a war broke out in the old continent, could embolden China to make a move.

Capitals-in-brief

France’s Macron appoints new PM, hoping to boost EU campaign. Education Minister Gabriel Attal was appointed France’s prime minister on Tuesday (9 January), just months ahead of EU elections, in the hope of setting a new clear political line after heavy political instability that had sapped President Emmanuel Macron’s popularity.

EU Socialists call on Serbia to uphold rule of law, democracy after elections. While EU institutions do not seem eager to take concrete action over Serbia’s controversial 17 December general elections, the Party of European Socialists are keeping up the momentum with a strongly worded letter sent to Prime Minister Ana Brnabic. Read more.

Sentenced Polish lawmakers taken to jail following carefully orchestrated arrest. Former Ministers Mariusz Kamiński and Maciej Wąsik were arrested on Tuesday at the Presidential Palace, where they were offered shelter by President Andrzej Duda, in a ‘spectacular arrest’ that may have included a fake bus breakdown that kept the president from intervening, according to Polish media.

Romanian transporters, farmers block roads over expensive civil liability policies. Transporters and farmers from across the country staged roadblocks on ring roads in Bucharest and other cities on Wednesday in response to, among other things, compulsory civil liability policies, demanding the prices of these policies be capped.

Greece to legalise same-sex marriage, adoption. Greece will legalise marriage and adoption by same-sex couples, the prime minister said on Wednesday (10 January), but gave no timeframe on the sensitive issue in the staunchly Christian Orthodox state.

Inside the institutions

Similarities between Socialists and Liberals ahead of EU elections. Both European political families have a similar narrative about the priorities for EU elections and the “red lines” in the post-election area. Both groups at the European Parliament (the S&D and Renew Europe) held brief press points this week to talk about the European elections.

They discussed migration as a main priority, praising the agreement reached on the EU migration pact last December by co-legislators, and stressing the importance of supporting Ukraine in its ongoing war against the Russian invaders.

The countering of the far right across Europe is a strong point where the two increasingly converge. Even on social issues, the narrative is quite similar, though details are scant, with a growing perception that the old divide between the right and the left has given way to a battle between progressives and conservatives.

Michel makes his move. This week, the electoral debate on EU electoral speculation was driven by European Council President Charles Michel, who in a quite unexpected move, announced his candidacy for a seat in the European Parliament for the next European elections.

His departure from an EU top job started a round of speculation on the possibility for him to be the leading candidate of the European liberal family, or to aspire to have another EU top job.

MEPs are trying again to prevent Hungary from holding the Council’s presidency. A group of MEPs asked European Parliament President Roberta Metsola to push for a new procedure to prevent Hungary from holding the next six-month presidency of the Council of the EU.

The question becomes more serious, according to MEPs, in the likely election of Charles Michel at the European Parliament from mid-July, with the possibility for the Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban to detain an important power at the centre of the EU in the months before the nomination of a new European Council president.

UN refugee agency outlines recommendations to Belgium and Hungary for migration pact. UNHCR has released seven recommendations for the Belgian and Hungarian presidency of the Council, calling for a finalisation and implementation of the EU migration pact which guarantees the protection of the right for those seeking asylum in Europe.

Farmers: EU Commission must set up cap mechanism to tackle Ukrainian import surge. Five EU food producers organisations have urged the EU’s Agriculture Commissioner to adopt a cap mechanism for sensitive commodities for which the bloc liberalised import from Kyiv.

Influential legal opinion sides with EU Commission’s €2.4 bn fine in Google Shopping case. The Advocate General of the EU Court of Justice Juliane Kokott released its opinion on the Google Shopping case on Thursday (11 January), suggesting that the EU top court confirms the European Commission’s fine of €2.4 billion.

What we are reading

Mario Draghi floated as potential European Council president, Henry Foy and Paola Tamma write for the Financial Times.

How Europe can start Trump-proofing, Bruce Stokes writes for Politico.

How the European Parliament can stop Orbán’s EU presidency, Jaap Hoeksma writes for the EU Observer.

The next week in politics

At the Council, Eurogroup foreseen for Monday (15 January); informal meeting of environment ministers on Monday and Tuesday (15-16 January); and economic and financial affairs council for Tuesday (16 January)

The European Parliament will hold the first plenary session of the year in Strasbourg. Among other points, a debate is foreseen on the rise of neo-fascism in Europe and on the call for a ceasefire in Gaza

Thanks for reading. If you’d like to contact us for leaks, tips or comments, drop us a line at [email protected] or contact me on Twitter: @EleonorasVasques

[Edited by Zoran Radosavljevic/Nathalie Weatherald]