Dutch snap election: Polls suggest swing to centre-left under Timmermans

The alliance of Dutch centre-left PvdA (S&D Group) and GroenLinks (Greens) parties has taken the lead in polls in the Netherlands after joining forces ahead of the upcoming November national parliament snap election, according to Europe Elects’ latest analysis.

The two groups voted to campaign on a joint manifesto in mid-July in a bid to stem wavering support for left-leaning parties following the announcement of a snap election on 22 November, after long-time Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte resigned following disagreements in the current four-party coalition over migration policy.

The planned shared list is currently at 18.5% in the Europe Elects polling average, about 7.6% stronger than the two parties’ combined results from the 2021 national parliament election.

One of the leadership contenders for the shared list is European Commission Vice President Frans Timmermans, who announced in July that he would leave Brussels to run in the Dutch election.

Timmermans is a well-known political figure in the Netherlands, having previously served as foreign minister under Rutte between 2012 and 2014.

PvdA/GroenLinks is ahead of Rutte’s liberal VVD (Renew Europe Group), which is polling at 15.6% (−6.3), and the agrarian BBB, which is polling at 14.9% (+13.9).

The BBB, or Farmer-Citizen movement, has newly come to prominence in the Dutch political scene, founded to campaign against the VVD’s plans to cut nitrogen pollution on farms.

Still an open race

However, as per the current polling, Europe Elects Netherlands correspondent Nassreddin Taibi predicted that government formation will be difficult to predict due to the fragmented party system.

“A coalition containing PvdA/GL with VVD or PvdA/GL with BBB is likely. PvdA/GL already governs as a two-party act in several provinces,” he told EURACTIV.

“However, there’s a possibility of a full right-leaning government coalition too, which would contain VVD, BBB, JA21, PVV and SGP. This coalition has a majority in recent Ipsos polls but lacks that in other polls. As of now, VVD still officially rules out a coalition with PVV. But that might change now that Rutte is going to be replaced by a new leader, Justice Minister Dilan Yesilgöz, described as more conservative than Rutte.”

“Dutch polls also tend to change a lot coming closer to an election, often leading to some sort of consolidation behind bigger parties due to tactical voting,” Taibi concluded.

The lay of the land

Geert Wilders’ right-wing PVV is polling at 9.8%, about one point below its 2021 result.

The Party for the Animals (PvdD, Left Group) is polling at 6.1%, which would be the party’s best result so far (2021: 3.8%).

The liberal D66 (Renew Europe group) would crash from 15.0% in 2021 to only 6% if Europe Elects’ polling average was to repeat in an election. It would be the worst result for the junior government coalition party since 2006.

The Socialist Party is polling at 5%, about one point below its 2021 result.

The Eurofederalist Volt party is polling at 4.4% (+2).

The national-conservative JA21 (ECR) is polling at 4.3% (2021: 2.4%). The Christan Democrats (CDA, EPP), which are also part of the Rutte government, are set to drop from 9.5% to their worst result of only 4%.

Other parties that are set to enter the national parliament are the far-right FvD (Non-Inscrits) with 3.1%, which made headlines by spreading misinformation during the Coronavirus pandemic, the junior government party Christian Union (EPP) with 3.1%, and the Christian fundamentalist SGP (ECR) with 2.2%.

Pollsters recently show that the centrist 50PLUS and the left-wing BIJI, which both won parliamentary representation in 2021, will likely not win a seat.

The right-wing BVNL, which was founded in 2021, might win one seat for the first time.

[Edited by Théo Bourgery-Gonse]