ABOVE THE TRUMBLEY
Europe's leaders are a fickle lot. After years of complaining about former European Council President Charles Michel, whom they saw as a self-aggrandizer who lacked either the diplomatic aplomb or the organizational acumen to get the job done, they installed their ideal candidate, the 63-year-old former Portuguese Socialist Prime Minister António Costa.
Costa, a gregarious politician in the final stages of his career, seemed the ideal candidate to broker consensus among the 27 EU leaders and host Ursula.
But just three months into Costa's presidency, leaders are back to whining.
Irritated Spaniards
Costa has found himself at odds with member states large and small, who accuse him of being out of his element and overstepping his bounds, according to diplomatic sources from four different member states.
Even Socialist Spain has expressed disappointment at what some member states see as a lack of leadership, initiative and tangible action from the Council presidency in the face of Donald Trump's attacks, the sources said.
To be fair, when he has taken the initiative, it hasn’t gone over well either. At the Munich Security Conference, the Council President gave an interview to the Financial Times in which he called for talks on a “new security architecture” with the US and Russia. The comments caught many leaders off guard, prompting criticism that he hadn’t coordinated with them in advance.
Several countries were also irritated that Costa did not call an emergency council meeting to discuss the crisis in transatlantic relations after Munich, agreeing instead to fly to Paris for a mini-summit with Emmanuel Macron, von der Leyen, NATO chief Mark Rutte and several other European leaders. Some of the countries not included in the summit – the vast majority of the 27 – grumbled that Costa had ignored them.
Axis of MAGA
The real problem was in Budapest – and Rome and Bratislava. Costa has the unenviable task of coordinating discussions about Europe’s strategy on Trump and Russia with Viktor Orbán, Giorgia Meloni and Robert Fico, the leaders of other EU capitals suspected of colluding with Trump, Vladimir Putin or both.
Mistrust of leaders’ loyalty to Europe made Costa’s leap particularly tense. At a council meeting on Ukraine last week, for example, staff were ordered out of the room and mobile phones were banned. But some leaders, our sources say, were still reluctant to speak openly while Orban, Meloni and Fico were in the room.
If talk of Costa sounds familiar, it is because it reflects Europe's eternal challenge: to speak with one voice.
The same capitals grumbling about Costa were also irritated by the EU's top diplomat, Kaja Kallas, on February 28 that “the free world needs a new leader” – a position that many member states privately share but are not prepared to publicise so publicly.
Where is Ursula?
Speaking of opinions, von der Leyen, who usually does not shy away from the spotlight, has gone underground on the transatlantic front, apparently concerned about further escalation of tensions.
We are told that the Commission president tried hard to get an audience with Trump at Mar-a-Lago before the inauguration, but was refused.
She had to settle for a brief meeting with J.D. Vance on the sidelines of an artificial intelligence exhibition in Paris last month. How did it go? A few days later, Vance launched his scathing attack on Europe at the Munich Security Conference, which von der Leyen was watching.
Trump, who recently accused the EU of trying to “cheat” the US, probably sees von der Leyen as a Merkelite, which isn’t entirely wrong. But if there’s one person you don’t want to be associated with if you’re trying to poach Trump, it’s the former German chancellor.
Divide and conquer
Without von der Leyen, the EU looks hopelessly divided when it comes to agreeing on a strategy to deal with Trump. Even as many leaders herald a new era as US troops withdraw, others are doing their best to win back Washington’s favor.
Case in point: Just a day after US Secretary of State Marco Rubio spoke out against Kallas in Washington, he met with Greek Foreign Minister Giorgos Gerapetritis.
The episode underscored how easy it is for Washington to divide and rule Europe. This is especially true now, given the lack of trust between leaders. It is not Costas’s fault, but rather than making things better, he appears to be making them worse.
PROVINCIAL TALK
The return of Austria's prodigal chancellor?
The favourite game in the Austrian media salon is trying to predict when Sebastian Kurz, the Icarus of the country's politics, will return. Despite his repeated denials, few think it won't happen.
Kurz, 38, was forced to resign amid a corruption investigation in 2021. He has since been found guilty of lying to a parliamentary committee. Kurz also still faces a formal investigation into allegations of blackmail and fraud over the manipulation of opinion polls and ads his lieutenant placed in Austrian media using public money.
Still, Kurz’s chances of a successful comeback are better than might be expected , if only because his center-right Austrian People’s Party (ÖVP) is empty. His successor, Karl Nehammer, gave up in January after suffering huge losses in the September election, losing first place to the far-right Freedom Party. Nehammer tried and failed to form a coalition with the Social Democrats and the liberal Neos party, but failed.
Next up was Christian Stocker, a party apparatchik who had spent most of his political career working in local politics. Despite Freedom Party leader Herbert Kickl being labeled a “threat to democracy” after the election last fall, Stocker decided to try to form a coalition with him. Fortunately for Austria, the gambit failed. Stocker was forced back into the arms of the Social Democrats and Neos, and this time the parties came to an agreement. The new coalition took office last week.
Few Austrians, however, imagined Stocker as chancellor , especially given that Nehammer was the ÖVP’s leading candidate in the campaign. A colourless politician known more as a behind-the-scenes operator than as a standard-bearer, Stocker had never even been a minister, let alone chancellor. A lawyer by profession, Stocker was best known as his party’s secretary general, a public defender role that made him a familiar face on Austrian television (where we once memorably visited).
Viennese chatter is full of speculation that Stocker, a loyal party soldier, will eventually make way for Kurz once he has cleared up his legal woes, if not sooner. Austrian pro-Kurz tabloids are already beating the drum. One paper, oe24, recently aired a long, bland video interview with Kurz in which he insisted he was “happy with what I’m doing,” while not ruling out a return. Last week, the paper ran a story about Stocker’s dismal approval ratings: “No bonus for Stocker.” According to a poll, only 12 percent of Austrians support Stocker as chancellor.
The real question, however, is how many people will support Kurz.
That's all for this week. Remember: send your tips to [email protected] .
Servus!
Source: Source
