Belarus elections will be far from democratic, observers say

As Belarus gears up for its first elections since 2020, conditions for a democratic vote do not exist, with the regime of incumbent President Aleksandr Lukashenko using all available methods to keep voters under control.

Belarus will hold legislative elections on Sunday (25 February), and Belaya Rus’ — the party most aligned with the country’s incumbent authoritarian leader Alexander Lukashenko — will likely expand its majority.

Voters will elect 110 lawmakers in the lower house of the parliament and 12,000 local council representatives.

But regardless of how many people take part in these elections, they will be considered valid as compared to previous elections, there is no minimum participation rate.

In the summer of 2020, Lukashenko was declared the winner of the country’s last presidential election despite widespread evidence that the vote had been rigged.

The decision led to mass anti-government protests, and the regime postponed all scheduled elections over the next few years: local elections had been set for 2022, while the parliamentary ballot should have been held last year.

This year, OSCE observers will not be able to attend, and the opposition in exile — led by likely 2020 presidential election winner Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya — has called an election boycott. Inside the country, authorities have deregistered all opposition parties and jailed at least 1422 political prisoners — five of whom died afterwards.

Constitutionally, the Belarusian National Assembly has very little power, and in reality, it has even less as Lukashenko has centralised most power in the presidency. After Sunday’s election, the legislature will become subordinate to a new body — the All Belarusian People’s Assembly, which will be led by a praesidium.

Any votes cast on Sunday will not genuinely impact the country’s domestic politics.

In the EU context

Lukashenko and other Belarusian officials are under EU sanctions, but the regime is far less comprehensive than those placed on Russia or President Vladimir Putin. While some members of Lukashenko’s government are sanctioned, others like Prime Minister Ramán Halóǔčanka are not.

In 2020, during massive election protests and a government crackdown, European leaders were cautious about taking too firm a stance against Lukashenko, fearing that strong actions would provoke Putin.

Given the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the worsening state of Belarusian authoritarianism, the EU is unlikely to have that concern again.

In September, the European Parliament adopted a resolution urging the International Criminal Court to issue an arrest warrant for Lukashenko and further sanctions on Belarus.

Earlier this month, EU’s chief diplomat Josep Borrell said: “We denounce the Lukashenka regime’s continued senseless violation of human rights and unprecedented level of repression ahead of the upcoming elections. Those responsible will be held to account.”

While in the past, Belarusian news often slipped by unnoticed, this year’s election comes directly before the Russian Presidential elections and amid news of Alexei Navalny’s death.

Lukashenko has also become more confrontational with the EU — particularly Poland, with Belarus having a lengthy border.

*Infographics by Tobias Gerhard Schminke

[Edited by Alexandra Brzozowski/Alice Taylor]