Michel Barnier set out a series of policy priorities spanning spending cuts, immigration, health and more in a wide-ranging speech on Tuesday (1 October), with nudges and nods to Brussels that France was back under control.
Barnier’s ‘discours de politique générale’ – a speech Prime ministers read out to Parliament when a new government is in place, laying policy priorities during their tenure – was more anticipated than ever, as the country navigates a looming budget crisis and the parliamentary arithmetic means the far-right holds the key to Barnier’s government’s survival.
Over the course of an hour and a half, the 73-year-old gave a ‘blood, sweat and tears’ address to warn that France’s public finances were “on a ridgeline,” with ever-growing deficit and debt levels – all the while trying to rally all members of his precarious government coalition, and the far-right, into giving him a chance.
“There is a lot we must do […] to respond to French people’s expectations. And we must do with very little, with only few resources,” Barnier told lawmakers at the National Assembly.
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Newly-appointed French Prime Minister Michel Barnier presented his government on Saturday (21 September), largely maintaining the political course of previous pro-Macron administrations while making concessions to the far-right Rassemblement National (RN).
“No choice”
But it was not just France that Barnier was addressing in his speech.
Brussels was eager to hear it too, as the European Commission waits to receive France’s revised pluriannual spending plans on 31 October, some six weeks later than the initial 20 September deadline.
Deficit levels are projected to reach 6.2% of GDP in 2025 without reversing course – a far-cry from the 4.4% the government was planning for in the 2024-2027 stability programme it had sent to the European Commission in the spring of 2023. It also exceeds the 5.1% of GDP France had expected in its reviewed projections in April of this year.
The situation is fuelling growing concerns that Paris’ influence in Europe is waning.
The economic situation “is weakening us in Europe,” the Prime Minister warned, before laying out a policy tryptic to respond to the crisis: cut public spending, spend more efficiently, and increase taxes.
As the shadow of France’s excessive deficit procedure (EDP) looms large, Barnier announced he would implement an “exceptional and temporary” tax on large companies with the most significant profit margins, and hike tax levels for the richest few.
According to Le Monde, draft proposals could see corporate tax increased from a flat 25% to 33.5%, applying only to companies with at least €1 billion in annual turnover, for a total net revenue to the government of €8 billion.
There was no mention, however, of other plans revealed by Le Monde to more severely tax Airbnb rentals, inflate the price of the most polluting cars, and implement an excise tax on share buybacks.
Ultimately, Barnier pledged to bring deficit levels back to 5% of GDP in 2025, and reach the 3% bar in 2029 – some two years later than what was initially planned.
“We have no choice,” he said.
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France’s new government was finally announced over the weekend after an unprecedented 67-day wait, but its survival is already in question as urgent files with significant EU repercussions pile up, and a potential no-confidence vote is on the radar.
Immigration: Words of the far-right
Barnier is considered in EU circles an excellent negotiator, having handled Brexit talks on behalf of the European Commission.
His consensus-making skills should come in handy in assuaging the Commission’s pressing concerns on the budget – as well as in likely upcoming talks on immigration.
The Asylum and Migration Pact, a series of EU-wide legislative files adopted in May after years of fraught interinstitutional talks to curb irregular immigration and reinforce detention infrastructure on the bloc’s external borders, “must be implemented without delays,” said Barnier.
But it must be “completed by giving Frontex its prime role as the EU’s border guards back,” he announced, all the while confirming that border checks would remain in place “for as long as necessary, as allowed under EU rules, just like Germany”.
He said he is also open to limiting the granting of visas for third-countries who refuse to welcome back their nationals attempted to enter France irregularly, and stands ready to renegotiate existing bilateral immigration deals, including with Algeria.
Barnier fell short of bringing to the fore more repressive measures that he once, some three years ago, actively supported, including a referendum on immigration and a ‘constitutional shield’ to disapply EU law that ran counter to France’s immigration policy interests.
But neither has he condemned the radical tone his own Home Affairs minister Bruno Retailleau has been taking on since being on the job. Retailleau has pushed for a major revamp of the Migration Pact, called for reform of the Schengen agreements, and judged the “rule of law [to be] neither intangible nor sacred”.
“It is troubling to see that the words [Michel Barnier] is using are those of the far right,” Renew MEP and migration expert Fabienne Keller – whose party Renaissance is a government coalition member – told Euractiv, adding that the speech’s wording “amounts to giving Retailleau free rein”.
It remains to be seen whether the government can survive a vote of no-confidence, expected to be tabled by the left-wing union next week.
Far-right Rassemblement national’s Marine Le Pen, who took centre stage just after Barnier, laid out the two conditions necessary for her troops to give the government tacit support: reduce “fiscal pressure” and engineer a “migratory, security and penal wake-up call”.
If Barnier fails to meet Le Pen’s asks, he knows one thing: he is just one vote away from being the short-serving PM in modern political history.
[Edited by Owen Morgan]
Source: euractiv.com
