Are claims of a far-right triumph exaggerated?

Dear readers,

Welcome to EU Politics Decoded, where Benjamin Fox and Eleonora Vasques will bring you a round-up of the latest political news in Europe and beyond every Thursday.

Editor’s Take: Are claims of a far-right triumph exaggerated?

The narrative about the rise of the far-right and nationalist parties has become an accepted part of discourse. Pundits in Brussels like to guesstimate how many seats they will win in the next European Parliament, while some left and liberal leaders talk of an existential threat to the EU institutions.

But are we overestimating both their levels of support and the perceived trend towards parties offering different shades of right-wing populism?

There is no question that the Dutch elections, where Geert Wilders’ Freedom party topped the poll and is now engaged in coalition negotiations, came as a rude shock to the political establishment in the Netherlands and Brussels.

For much of the campaign, the big question was whether Frans Timmermans, who quit as the EU’s climate tsar to lead a red-green coalition, would form the next government.

Marine Le Pen’s Rassemblement looks likely to top the European election polls in France in June, while Giorgia Meloni’s Fratelli d’Italia continue to perform strongly. And, of course, there is Viktor Orbán – the EU’s bête noire.

But Poland bucked the trend in September’s elections, with Donald Tusk’s centrist coalition taking power from the nationalist Law and Justice party, which has dominated politics for the last decade. Spain, as well, saw a near dead heat between the conservatives and socialists and the continuation – at least for the moment – of a socialist-led coalition.

The UK may be out of the EU, but its political trends are still closely linked to those in the EU27, and centre-left Labour party, boasting a 20-25 point poll lead, appears almost certain to win elections set to be held in 2024

So, in answer to the question: Is Europe necessarily becoming more conservative, the picture is far more nuanced.

On migration, there seems to be a sustained trend towards much stricter border controls than we have seen in the past.

The new immigration and asylum rules approved by EU lawmakers earlier this week, following years of delays and false starts, will make it slightly tougher for new arrivals in Europe, be they asylum seekers or economic migrants.

So, too, will the ‘cash for migrant control’ deals with the likes of Tunisia, Morocco and, soon, Egypt that effectively outsource EU border management.

These new rules, though hardly radical, have been approved because EU leaders were desperate to show their electorates that they are doing something to address migration.

Meanwhile, identity and culture war politics is now present across much of Europe, and the rhetoric used on both sides – in a debate that is fundamentally about liberal and socially conservative values – is polarising and often shrill.

But on the economy and jobs, there seems to be much more public support for parties offering state intervention. A decade ago, the Eurozone debt crisis and a combination of financial market pressure and the EU’s rules on debts and deficits forced socialist governments to behave like conservative ones by imposing tough austerity measures.

Ten years on and, the COVID-19 pandemic and cost of living crisis have pushed centre-right parties to adopt the kind of spending programmes that they would once have denounced as irresponsible profligacy. State intervention in the economy, price controls and protectionism are now broadly accepted across the party spectrum.

On climate change and energy policy, there is broad public support for radically reducing carbon emissions and the green transition.

Europe’s politics has changed radically over the past decade. The questions being asked of its leaders are more complex and complicated than before. Populism offers simple answers and instant gratification.

But to paraphrase Mark Twain, reports of its triumph are greatly exaggerated.

Capitals-in-brief

Macron may be ‘killer of Social Europe’, Platform Work Directive rapporteur warns. Member states must do everything to ensure the Platform Work Directive provisional deal is approved, Parliament rapporteur Elisabetta Gualmini told Euractiv in an interview, warning that France’s refusal to vote on the text is “unacceptable”.

Brussels takes heat pump ‘action plan’ off the agenda. The European Commission has shelved proposals to boost the roll-out of heat pumps with a dedicated action plan, a move that will likely delay the initiative beyond the EU elections in June.

Belgian PM sees China as ‘hostile’ country after espionage allegations. Belgian Prime Minister Alexandre de Croo on Wednesday (20 December) described China as a “sometimes very hostile” country following allegations that Beijing had recruited a member of the Belgian far-right party Vlaams Belang as an intelligence asset.

Serbia to hold partial election re-run after protests. Serbia announced Wednesday (20 December) that it will re-run its recent election in certain areas, according to state media, just days after nationwide voting triggered protests and international condemnation over alleged fraud.

Ireland takes UK to European court over ‘Troubles’ amnesty law. Ireland announced legal action Wednesday (20 December) against the UK government in the European Court of Human Rights over a law granting immunity to combatants in the Northern Ireland conflict.

Inside the institutions

EU institutions reach comprehensive deal on migration. EU institutions have reached a political agreement on five regulations that, for the first time, will lay down a harmonised approach to migration management for Europe. However, NGOs have criticised the deal as going against basic human rights.

EU ministers propose walls, fences, surveillance for migration ‘solidarity’ mechanism. EU ministers are ready to fund walls, fences, and barbed wire in third countries to prevent migrants’ departures and boost surveillance at EU borders as part of a migration ‘solidarity’ mechanism.

Explainer: The complex fiscal rules that EU finance ministers have agreed to. After months of negotiations, EU finance ministers on Wednesday (20 December) agreed on a new set of rules to govern member state finances, focusing on lowering budget deficits and public debt at a time when Europe requires investments for green and digital transition and defence capabilities.

DSA: Three pornography sites join EU digital rulebook’s ‘systemic risk’ list. Three pornography websites will have to abide by strict EU rules after being included on the Digital Services Act’s (DSA) very large online platforms list, the EU Commission announced on Wednesday (20 December).

What we are reading

AI is forcing teachers to confront an existential question, Molly Roberts writes for the Washington Post

Children, old, and vulnerable — the victims of air-pollution, Leena Ylä-Mononen writes for EU Observer

How migration is pushing Europe to the right, writes the Financial Times

The next week in politics

EU institutions take a break for Christmas. This is the last newsletter of 2023 and Benjamin’s last as Politics Editor. We will restart in early January with new insight on EU politics!

Happy Christmas and happy new year to everyone!

Thanks for reading. If you’d like to contact us for leaks, tips or comments, drop us a line at [email protected] / [email protected] or contact us on Twitter: @EleonorasVasques & @benfox83

[Edited by Alice Taylor]