Dear readers,
Welcome to EU Politics Decoded where Benjamin Fox and Eleonora Vasques will bring you a round-up of the latest political news in Europe and beyond every Thursday.
In this edition, we address the sharp polarisation between conservatives and progressive forces that is degrading democracy and creating a new age of extremes.
Editor’s Take: A new age of democratic extremes
Polarisation is the dominant theme of national politics across the world. People back their political tribe as they do their football team.
This is a dangerous cocktail. Many football fans find it hard to explain why they support their team. Football fandom is to many an irrational form of escapism. The nature of the game is being polarised by ancient rivalries and supporters are happy about it.
In the case of democracy, however, the choice of everyone determines the destiny of a country. Slogans fuelled by populist propaganda on social networks and TV programs, together with fake news, are making the already difficult job of government almost impossible.
And the more a debate on two candidates or two ideas is polarised, the more violent it can be. This was the case in Brazil’s presidential run-off between new president-elect Lula da Silva and his predecessor Jair Bolsonaro last weekend, the French elections in April 2022, the US elections in 2016 and 2020, or the 2016 Brexit referendum.
These elections all ended in a near 50-50 split and resulted in serious problems of governance.
As we argued several weeks ago, politics is now no longer about left vs right, but conservatives vs progressives, whose growing polarisation is not helping the legitimacy of democratic institutions worldwide.
The electoral battle in Brazil between Bolsonaro and Lula is the most recent example of polarisation. Lula won with 50.9% of the vote, despite concerted efforts by Bolsonaro’s supporters to suppress voter turnout.
“I believe that, in a certain way, there has always been a polarisation in Brazil, not necessarily political, but class polarisation. Rich and poor, southeast, and northeast, asphalt and favela, it has always existed, because it is a country of continental dimensions, multicultural and extremely unequal.” Priscila Lauande, a Brazilian lawyer and academic, told EURACTIV.
She explained that after the re-democratisation of the country, there has never been a strong right-wing equivalent to the Labour party.
As a result, Bolsonaro filled a vacuum “in which part of the population does not feel represented by the ideas of the left, a population that defends traditional values, that follows in the opposite movement”.
“So, the polarisation arises, politically speaking, in the coup of the Brazilian elites against the Labour party, initially, configured as an ‘anti-system’ party, that discredits the whole Brazilian political system incorporated in the Labour Party,” said Lauande.
Bolsonaro, after a long silence, has grudgingly accepted the results, though without congratulating President Lula, while some of his supporters demand military intervention.
The refusal by political leaders to accept election results – a tactic that has only recently emerged in Europe and the West – poses an existential threat to democratic legitimacy.
“Stop the count!” former US president Donald Trump wrote on Twitter following his defeat to Joe Biden, one of the acts that provoked the assault of Capitol Hill in January 2021.
For the most part, Europe has avoided these extremes, though the reality of a National Assembly in France, where re-elected President Emmanuel Macron lacks a majority, points to serious problems of governability and institutional gridlock.
Lost in this new age of extremes is a role for political debate and compromise.
Charts of the week
Who’s electioneering?
Lula wins in Brazil. The governability of the next Brazilian Parliament is likely to be the biggest challenge that president-elect Lula da Silva will face after narrowly defeating the conservative nationalist Jair Bolsonaro in a bitterly fought election.
Netanyahu will govern thanks to ultra-nationalists. According to partial results, ex-Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu is set to govern the country with 65 seats out of 120 in the Knesset. A victory possible thanks to the support of the ultra-nationalist Religious Zionism party. Netanyahu will likely enforce the occupation in Palestinian territories in East Jerusalem, West Bank and Gaza.
Capitals-in-brief
Frederiksen wins in Denmark. Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen’s Social Democrats secured their strongest election results in more than two decades, and are set to form a new government despite falling short of a majority in parliament.
“Thanks to all Danes who have trusted us with your vote, it’s a huge vote of confidence. I know some of you have had doubts along the way,” Frederiksen said early on Wednesday.
The Social Democrats are the biggest party in parliament after taking 27.5% of votes. The centre-left bloc got 87 seats in the 179-seat parliament but appears set to obtain a majority with the support of an MP from the Faroe Islands and two yet-to-be-determined seats in Greenland, a sovereign territory of Denmark that often elects left-wing candidates.
UK ‘settlement scheme’. The High Court in London was told by lawyers that the post-Brexit settlement scheme for EU nationals living and working in Britain risks leaving 2.6 million people at unlawful risk of deportation.
40% of the nearly seven million applications by EU nationals have been granted ‘pre-settled status’, which only gives them residency rights for five years, at the end of which they must apply again.
Nothing to declare. The Maltese government has come under fire after a handful of ministers, including Prime Minister Robert Abela, failed to correctly declare their assets as they are required to do every year.
The 2022 declarations are some of the most opaque on record as eight new cabinet members, including two ministers and six parliamentary secretaries, have failed to declare their income.
Inside the institutions
Meloni in Brussels. Italy’s economic recovery plan is set to top the agenda when new Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni meets EU leaders in Brussels on Thursday (3 November).
The Italian leader’s first visit abroad as premier will include meetings with European Council President Charles Michel, European Commission President Ursula Von Der Leyen, and European Parliament President Roberta Metsola.
Meloni still supports the idea of renegotiating the recovery plan for Italy, the biggest single beneficiary from the €750 billion fund, but has toned down her campaign rhetoric, which had called for the entire programme to be re-written.
Commission signs border pact with Egypt’s el-Sisi. The European Commission signed an agreement with Egypt on Sunday (30 October) for the first phase of an €80 million border management programme as migration numbers for Egypt to Europe have increased this year.
The project aims to help Egypt’s coast and border guards reduce irregular migration and human trafficking along its border, and provides for the procurement of surveillance equipment such as search and rescue vessels, thermal cameras, and satellite positioning systems, according to an EU Commission document published this month.
What we are reading
- The energy crisis gives the US a chance to woo big European companies, writes Brooke Masters for the Financial Times.
- The logic behind Zuckerberg’s big, (probably) bad bet on the metaverse, writes Megan McArdle for the Washington Post
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Writing for the Atlantic Council ahead of next week’s COP27 climate summit, Michal Kurtyka and Paddy Ryan ask how the EU can regain its climate credibility. (Atlantic Council).
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UK polling guru John Curtice argues in The Guardian that Labour are odds-on to take power at the next election.
The next week in politics
- COP 27 will dominate the media environment (to 8 November)
- Several meetings at the Council: Eurogroup (7 November), Economic and Financial Affairs Council (8 November) and on Budget (11 November)
- ‘Mini’ Plenary at the European Parliament in Brussels, together with Committee meetings
Thanks for reading. If you’d like to contact us for leaks, tips or comments, drop us a line at [email protected] / [email protected] or contact us on Twitter: @EleonorasVasques & @benfox83
Source: euractiv.com
