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The European news you deserve to read. Welcome to The Capitals by EURACTIV.
Thank you for reading today’s edition, the last one before the The Capitals go on winter holidays. We will be back on 4 January.
It is hard to argue 2022 was a calm year, leaving many to wonder what the next turn of the planet will bring. To brief our readers on some of the ‘known unknowns’, EURACTIV presents a rundown of Europe’s upcoming electoral cycle.
From the passing into the political Lethe of infamous political figures such as Czechia’s Miloš Zeman to the possible return of well-known characters such as Slovakia’s former Prime Minister Robert Fico, there are many ballot box results to watch out for.
Although next year is only a prelude to the 2024 European Parliament elections, as a prequel, it is set to deliver.
Will progressive superstar Sanna Marin be able to defend her post as Finland’s prime minister? Are Bulgarians heading to the polls for the fifth time in two years? What to watch out for at the Spanish ballot box as Madrid takes over the EU presidency in the second half of 2023? Where is the far right on the rise? Will the green wave continue in Switzerland?
Find out in the last edition of this season’s The Capitals.
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PRAGUE
Czechia is heading to the polls to elect a new president in January to replace the controversial Miloš Zeman after a ten-year tenure in office. While it is unlikely that any candidate will win the majority of the votes in the first round, three have emerged as leading contenders to enter a run-off. Read our take.
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NICOSIA
The presidential election in Cyprus will take place on 5 February. The president of Cyprus is not only the head of state but also represents the country in the European Council. Centre-right Nicos Anastasiades (DISY-EPP) currently holds the position but is not allowed to run in the February vote after serving two terms. Read our take.
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TALLINN
Estonia will elect a new parliament on 5 March, determining whether liberal Kaja Kallas will continue to represent the country as prime minister in the European Council. Current polls show that Kallas may lose her parliamentary majority – made up of her own Reform Party (Renew Europe) – as well as social democrats and centre-right Isamaa (EPP).
However, Kallas could continue with an alternative government coalition under her leadership, as the opposition’s ideological divisions will likely make it difficult to form a government.
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HELSINKI
On 2 April, Finland will elect a new parliament, which will determine the fate of European Council member and centre-left Prime Minister Sanna Marin. Current polls suggest that Marin’s government coalition of the Social Democratic party, the Centre party, the Greens, the Left, and the liberal Swedish People’s party will defend its majority. However, the centre-right KOK party is polling as the strongest party. Read our take.
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ATHENS
Greece will elect a new national parliament by July 2023. Polls suggest Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis’ centre-right New Democracy party (EPP Group) is set to defend its position as the strongest party. However, different from 2019, Mitsotakis may be unable to form a government without a coalition partner after the vote.
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MADRID
Municipal elections will be held in May, while national parliamentary elections will be held on 10 December. Many view the municipal elections as the first litmus test for socialist Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez’s governing coalition with left-wing Unidas Podemos (United We Can/GUE-NGL). After that, the parties will have to face the general election set for December next year, and the political row with Catalonia is one of the ‘hot potatoes’ in the political arena. Read our take.
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BERN
The new parliament is to be elected on 22 October, while the new heads of state will be elected on 12 December. The 2023 elections will show whether the 2019 green wave can be sustained. Read our take.
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WARSAW
National parliamentary elections will take place on in the mid- to late autumn to elect members of the Sejm and Senate.
Our take:
The upcoming elections will be extremely important for Poland and its place in the EU. According to polls, the current opposition has a good chance of forming a joint coalition government, pushing the ruling Eurosceptic and conservative United Right coalition out of power. The fate of Poland’s judiciary, education system, and relations with the EU will depend on the outcome of these elections and the possible victory of the opposition parties.
In the run-up to the election, keep an eye on the smaller parties, which could play a kingmaker role. If the difference in support between the United Right and the opposition turns out to be small, the positions of all non-aligned MPs will count.
BONUS
BRATISLAVA
In Slovakia, the right-of-centre minority government of Prime Minister and European Council member Eduard Heger was brought down by a vote of no confidence on 15 October, meaning a snap election in the spring or fall of 2023 seems increasingly likely. Current polls suggest a tectonic shift for the highly fragmented party system if these were to happen. Read our take.
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SOFIA
Likely in spring, Bulgarians may need to vote in general elections, again. This would be the fifth general election in the last two years, since the main political forces in the poorest EU country still cannot form a stable parliamentary majority. Read our take.
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PARIS
No elections are expected for 2023 in France at the moment. However, the risk of an early legislative election cannot be totally ruled out. In June, voters denied President Emmanuel Macron, re-elected in April 2022, an absolute majority in the National Assembly. Meanwhile, successive motions for no-confidence votes against his liberal Renaissance party indicate a shaky political ground under the French leader. Read our take.
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TIRANA
Albanians are set to vote in local elections on 14 May to choose the mayors of 61 municipalities. It is set to be an interesting occassion as the opposition parties boycotted the 2019 local elections over allegations of corruption and vote buying involving ruling party officials.
Our take:
A coalition between the Democratic Party faction led by former prime minister and president Sali Berisha and former president and prime minister Ilir Meta from the Freedom Party is set to be the main challenger to the ruling Socialist Party, in central government for a decade and currently running almost every municipal unit in the country.
With turnout between 10% and 38% in 2019, more voters are expected to participate this time around, although voter malaise and mass emigration will undoubtedly impact the outcome.
Source: euractiv.com
