News Analysis
Taiwan President Lai Ching-te may be betting that China's willingness to retaliate will be limited by Beijing's interest in containing tensions with the Trump administration.
After Taiwan President Lai Qingdao launched a wide-ranging campaign this month against what he called China's expanding subversion and espionage, the backlash was swift.
Across the Taiwan Strait, Beijing hit back, sending a wave of warplanes and ships toward the island and warning it was “playing with fire.” In Taiwan, Mr. Lai’s opponents accused him of dangerously provoking China.
But Mr. Lai is betting that he can — and, his supporters say, must — take a tougher stance on Chinese influence now, despite threats from Beijing and the likelihood that Taiwan's opposition parties will further harden their resistance to his agenda.
Mr. Lai appears to have concluded that China will limit its actions against Taiwan while Beijing focuses on trying to negotiate with President Trump to escalate the trade war, said David Sachs, a fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations who follows Taiwan affairs.
“He probably decided that if he was going to do this, he should do it at a time when China didn’t want anything to complicate its negotiations with the United States,” Mr. Sachs said in an interview about Mr. Lai’s security arrangements.
