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On January 14, China declared an unprecedented trade surplus reaching nearly $1.2 trillion in 2025, propelled by a spike in exports to markets excluding the United States, as reported by Reuters.
China chose to broaden the scope of its companies’ activities beyond the United States, redirecting its attention towards Southeast Asia, Africa, and Latin America, thereby mitigating the repercussions of fresh US tariffs and escalating commercial, technological, and geopolitical strife since President Donald Trump’s return to the Oval Office the prior year.
“The Chinese economy remains exceptionally competitive. While this underscores advancements in productivity and the increasing technological refinement of Chinese producers, it also stems from subdued domestic consumption and the accompanying surplus capacity,” noted Fred Neumann, HSBC’s lead economist for Asia.
Experts suggest that Beijing will encounter numerous obstacles in 2026, notably addressing apprehensions among a growing number of international capitals concerning China’s trade conduct and overcapacity, alongside their excessive reliance on pivotal Chinese commodities.
One of the foremost dilemmas confronting decision-makers is determining the duration for which the $19 trillion economy can persist in offsetting the housing market slump and listless internal demand by offering increasingly affordable merchandise to external markets.
“China’s burgeoning trade surplus may amplify tensions with trading partners, particularly those that heavily depend on their own exports,” Neumann stated.
China’s total trade surplus for the year amounted to $1.189 trillion, a sum equivalent to the GDP of a nation ranked among the world’s top 20 economies, like Saudi Arabia, as revealed by customs data published on Wednesday.
Outbound shipments from the globe’s second-largest economy saw an increase of 6.6% in annualized valuation during December, relative to a 5.9% surge in November. Economists surveyed by Reuters anticipated a 3.0% escalation.
Imports experienced a climb of 5.7%, following a 1.9% elevation the preceding month, and likewise outstripped the projected growth of 0.9%.
As highlighted by Pinpoint Asset Management’s chief economist, Jin Zhang, robust export expansion is instrumental in alleviating sluggish domestic consumption.
Concurrently, the Chinese yuan maintained stability following the positive data, even as equity investors applauded the better-than-expected outcome.
China’s monthly trade surplus exceeded $100 billion on seven occasions last year, partially attributable to a weakening yuan, compared to a solitary instance in 2024, emphasizing the limited influence of Trump’s measures on China’s broader commerce with the world, despite his restrictions on shipments to the United States, according to the agency.
In 2025, exports to the US decreased by 20% when measured in dollars, while imports originating from the world’s premier economy diminished by 14.6%. Chinese factories successfully penetrated alternative markets, with exports to Africa surging by 25.8% and to the ASEAN bloc within Southeast Asia by 13.4%. Shipments to the EU rose by 8.4%.
China’s exports of rare earth elements in 2025 attained their highest mark since at least 2014, even amidst Beijing’s initiation of supply restrictions on several medium and heavy elements commencing in April.
China also secured a record volume of soybeans in the past year, facilitated by a substantial boost in provisions from South America, as Chinese purchasers refrained from importing the American harvest for a significant portion of the year due to ongoing trade disagreements.
Economists anticipate China to persistently augment its global market share this year, aided by Chinese enterprises establishing overseas manufacturing hubs that grant entry to the United States and the European Union at diminished tariffs, coupled with strong demand for semiconductors and other electronic components.