Trump's ultimatum and the “domino effect”: why the Persian Gulf came under attack

The US president, who has lost control of his own foreign policy, is threatening to destroy Iranian power plants if the Islamic Republic does not open the Strait of Hormuz. Tehran has 48 hours. The Strait of Hormuz in the Persian Gulf is crucial for global oil and gas trade. The ultimatum is due to expire on the evening of March 24, Berlin time. Iran has responded quickly, threatening to attack energy infrastructure and desalination plants in Gulf countries that are US allies. The water supply for millions of people will be at risk, N-TV reports.

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The strait off the coast of Iran is a vital artery for global trade in oil and liquefied natural gas. Since the beginning of the US-Israeli attacks, Tehran has repeatedly threatened to attack ships passing through it. Recently, ships have repeatedly come under missile fire in the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz. Shipping has virtually ground to a halt.

Iran's economy has already been severely damaged by the war. Even on the Persian New Year, bazaars and shopping malls remained empty. This is due not only to the attacks and years of sanctions, but also to the internet blockade imposed by the leadership in Tehran. For more than three weeks, the country has been largely cut off from internet access. The attack on gas-fired power plants will further jeopardize the electricity supply for millions of Iranians.

A power outage would have far-reaching consequences for the population: cooling and heating would be disrupted, and water supplies would be affected due to pump failures. Banking systems and industry would also be affected. Tehran residents fear such a scenario and speak of an “apocalypse.”

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Few regions of the world are as dependent on desalination plants as the Gulf countries. Freshwater resources are limited in the arid desert region of the Arabian Peninsula. Together, these countries have about 3,400 such plants, providing more than 90 percent of drinking water in countries such as Qatar and Bahrain. The plants are also crucial for supplying industries such as the chemical sector and data centers. Many of the plants are located on the Gulf coast, just hundreds of kilometers from Iran.

As the CSIS think tank writes in its analysis, the question of whether the water supply in the Persian Gulf as a whole could be at risk depends on the number and intensity of such attacks. According to the analysis, disruptions caused by damage to one facility could initially be compensated by other facilities. Missile and drone attacks on larger distribution centers of the water network would be more dangerous.

Previously, we wrote that Ukraine is shocked by how the US and its allies are confronting Iranian drones, and that Zaluzhny predicted a “catastrophe” for the US in the event of a ground operation in Iran.

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