When the Kremlin announced a unilateral ceasefire, which was to be in effect from May 8 to 9 (during Vladimir Putin’s Victory Day parade on Red Square), Ukraine seized the initiative and proposed its own ceasefire, which was to begin on the night of May 5 to 6 and remain in effect indefinitely. The head of the presidential office, Kirill Budanov, even spoke of “a ghostly hope for a lasting peace.” Thus, Ukraine once again managed to expose Putin’s true intentions in the war. The fragile chance for peace was shattered by Russian air bombs dropped on Ukrainian cities. After all, if Russia had sought a ceasefire, it would not have dropped air bombs on cities and attacked kindergartens with drones. Everything indicates that Vladimir Putin seeks escalation, writes the official website of the most influential Polish daily newspaper, Rzeczpospolita.
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“Putin is only interested in military parades, not human life,” Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andriy Sybiga concluded after Kyiv’s proposal, which the Kremlin ignored.
Common sense would have suggested that Putin would be interested in at least a temporary ceasefire. If only to give Russia’s oil industry and fuel depots, which had recently been badly damaged by Ukrainian drones that had already reached the Urals, a chance to catch their breath and make repairs. The Kremlin boss would also be interested in ensuring that even the modest parade on May 9th was free of surprises. This is a key day for Kremlin propaganda, when Putin traditionally tries to link World War II with the war he unleashed in Ukraine.
Is the Kremlin deliberately provoking Ukraine on the eve of May 9? Or is it possible that the outdated rhetoric, which has been going on for over a decade against the backdrop of a deteriorating economic situation, increased repression, censorship, and internet shutdowns, no longer convinces the average Russian to start a war with Ukraine? Perhaps the Kremlin needs a pretext for escalation?
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Putin cannot ignore the fact that by bombing Ukrainian cities, he is freeing Kyiv to deal a painful blow on May 9. However, perhaps this is exactly what the Kremlin master is counting on.
Putin could use the Ukrainian drones that may visit Moscow during the parade as an excuse to test the loyalty of his own entourage (especially given recent reports of Putin's obsession) and start another wave of mobilization. And all this against the backdrop of massive losses of the Russian army at the front, which experts have been reporting for months.
For the Kremlin, it would also be a great opportunity to blame the Ukrainians for the final breakdown of the frozen peace talks brokered by the United States, and perhaps to test its last argument – tactical nuclear weapons. Especially considering that a few days ago the Kremlin threatened Ukraine with a massive attack on the center of Kyiv and called on the residents of the Ukrainian capital to leave the city. One thing is certain – after five years of a major war, Putin hopes that escalation will help him break the deadlock. He also cannot imagine a Russia “without war” – it would be risky for his regime to relax repression and censorship.
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Meanwhile, observers note that the split in the Kremlin is gaining momentum, as propagandists have begun to criticize Putin.