Tomas Pojar, who in 2023-2025 was an advisor to the Prime Minister and national security advisor to the government of the Czech Republic, is convinced that Russia could conventionally attack one of the Baltic or Scandinavian countries.
VIDEO OF THE DAY
“But the question is whether it will actually do it. We always look first at the weakest links and focus on the idea that if Russia ever decides to test NATO’s unity, it will do it in the Baltics. The Baltics have a certain geographical vulnerability and are relatively small states, but at the same time, in my opinion, they are quite well prepared today. Perhaps it is worth considering whether such a test will not take place in a completely different place. For example, the Black Sea region may be even more interesting from this point of view. Some states may be perceived as an easier target, for example, Bulgaria. It is a member of NATO, but at the same time it spends much less money on defense than the Baltics. In addition, the allies do not pay as much attention to it as the Baltics. And besides, there has been noticeable political instability there for a long time. It seems that in recent years there have been at least eight elections in Bulgaria. It is also one of the poorest countries in the European Union economically,” Tomasz Pojar explained his opinion.
Poyar believes that another thing is that Russian rationality is different from others.
“Russia started the war against Ukraine with the idea that in a few days it would capture Kyiv and install a pro-Russian government there, which would allow it to control all of Ukraine. But more than four years have passed since the beginning of the invasion of Ukraine, and Russia is still exhausted – both militarily and economically. I am convinced that if they had known then what this war would actually look like, they would have tried to act differently. I think that every Russian leader, including Putin and his possible successors, will learn a lesson from this war. I do not think that the next possible test or the next operation will take place according to the same scenario – that is, simply an invasion of one of the NATO or European Union countries. This testing may take other forms – hybrid, political, economic or some new ones,” the official added.
ADVERTISING
However, as “FACTS” previously wrote, Putin may escalate in Europe and expand the conflict in order to avoid concessions regarding Ukraine.
ADVERTISING