European politicians and officials are increasingly speaking about the danger of new aggression from Russia in the next one or two years. In Brussels and the capitals of the EU countries, there are fears that the Kremlin could use the geopolitical moment to expand the conflict beyond Ukraine, Politico reports.
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Finnish MEP Mika Aaltola, in a comment to the publication, emphasized that transatlantic relations are currently experiencing a crisis. According to him, the US is gradually reducing its role in European security, and the EU has not yet had time to increase its own defense potential.
Despite concerns, most European politicians consider a full-scale Russian attack on NATO countries unlikely. The reason is the significant depletion of Russian resources in the war against Ukraine. At the same time, they call “hybrid” or limited military operations against European countries, such as drone attacks, operations in the Baltic Sea, and aggressive actions in the Arctic, more realistic.
Former Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis believes that the Kremlin may escalate in Europe to avoid unprofitable negotiations over Ukraine. In his opinion, expanding the conflict could be a way to change the strategic balance and gain additional leverage.
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Aaltola adds that even despite the weakening, Russia could become more dangerous in the short term, using escalation as a “trump card up its sleeve.”
The publication quotes Estonian President Alar Karis as saying that Russia is currently too focused on the war against Ukraine to open a new front in the Baltic region. “We are vigilant. We are ready. Our eyes are open,” he stressed.
NATO diplomats agree: even the Kremlin's aggressive strategy has its limits, and a two-front war is too risky for Moscow.
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It was previously reported that Russia is using negotiations as a cover for preparing for new wars.