The anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine has sparked a flurry of opinion pieces, many of which offer different perspectives on the main issues of the war. Among them is an essay by Hannah Notte, director of the Eurasian Nonproliferation Program at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies. In an argument that seems to contradict the popular belief about the geopolitical impact of Donald Trump’s second term as president, she suggests that the Republican’s return to power has not been quite what Putin had hoped, Sky News reports.
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She notes that many expected Trump's election victory to quickly provide significant advantages to his Russian counterpart.
“While the war continues, Trump's admiration for Putin has not translated into anything that is actually beneficial to Russia. Efforts to normalize bilateral relations have come to nothing: no progress has been made in restoring direct flights or sending a new U.S. ambassador to Moscow. Neither the red carpet fanfare of the leaders' summit in Alaska last summer nor the friendliness of their henchmen is a substitute for proper diplomatic relations. Talk aside, the Trump White House has not been useful to Russia.”
Notte listed a number of actions by the US administration that actually hurt Putin, including imposing sanctions on Russian oil companies, seizing a Russian-flagged tanker, and pressuring India to stop buying Russian oil.
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She added that Trump is “of course not entirely bad for Russia,” pointing to the US president’s hostility to the European Union and capricious foreign policy, which has “destroyed transatlantic relations, called into question historical commitments, and put everyone on edge.”
“Trump’s disorientation may eventually work in Russia’s favor,” she writes. “For all his hesitation, Trump has not handed Ukraine over to Russia. If he were to force it into a bad deal now, he would provoke fierce resistance. Trump’s recent reneging on his threat to take Greenland by force suggests that when there is strong enough resistance, he will back down from maximalist demands… Unable to get what he wants from Trump in Ukraine, Putin will continue to fight, sinking Russia’s resources ever deeper into his disastrous war. The price in terms of finances and soldiers will continue to rise.”
Previously, journalist and publicist Vitaly Portnikov wrote on his blog about why the war will continue as long as Ukraine exists.
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