Former U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine John Herbst offers a sober analysis of current peace efforts.
“There are literally no public signs of Russia’s willingness to compromise,” he said in an interview with the Kyiv Post. “While Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has agreed to every proposal Trump has made since March, Russia has not agreed to any of them.”
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For Herbst, the meeting in Abu Dhabi was not so much a breakthrough as a Kremlin maneuver.
“I interpret their willingness to participate in these negotiations as a tactical decision by Putin to avoid disappointing Trump,” he said, after Moscow had categorically rejected bilateral or trilateral formats for months. “Putin’s goal is not peace, but visibility. His movement is straightforward: Putin still believes he can win. He wants political control over Ukraine. There are literally no public signs of Russia’s willingness to compromise.”
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When officials speak vaguely about “testing the elasticity of red lines,” Herbst believes the real issue is territory, particularly in the western part of Donbas.
“Can you make a deal without Ukraine handing over territory that you couldn’t conquer?” he asked rhetorically, describing what he believed Moscow was exploring.
He suspects that the pressure is directed primarily at Kyiv.
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“If they were only pressuring one side… it would be the Ukrainian side,” Herbst said, adding that Ukraine’s silence suggests that the talks are uncomfortable but not decisive.
Herbst argues that the timing of the Russian strikes on Kyiv, launched during the talks in Abu Dhabi, was not coincidental.
“Putin has been doing this for months,” he said. “We can talk… If you don’t agree to my surrender terms, I’ll bomb you to death. That’s the whole point.”
He added that the message is also aimed directly at Washington: Russia will escalate, and the US will do nothing.
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“He wants political control over Ukraine… he thinks he’s making progress… and he doesn’t want to say ‘no’ to Trump outright because he’s afraid of pissing Trump off. The only solution is leverage. The only way… to negotiate a lasting peace is you have to make it very unpleasant for Putin to continue the war,” Herbst said.
Meanwhile, Zelenskyy announced new trilateral talks. On February 1, a new trilateral meeting will take place with the participation of delegations from Ukraine, the United States, and Russia.